Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | VAN +350 MISS -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +5 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | MISS -3.7 (+8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.4 (+10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -3.0 (+8.0) | 138.4 (+6.6) | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -2.3 (+7.3) | 134.4 (+10.6) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -3.2 (+8.2) | 138.3 (+6.7) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -3.1 (+8.1) | 138.1 (+6.9) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | VAN 89 – 86 MISS |
| Jan 31, 2026 | VAN 71 – 68 MISS |
| Feb 22, 2025 | VAN 77 – 72 MISS |
| Jan 13, 2024 | MISS 69 – 56 VAN |
| Feb 4, 2023 | VAN 74 – 71 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-16 | 16-12 |
| Conference | 3-13 | 10-8 |
| Home | 6-7 | 10-4 |
| Away | 2-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#111) | 10.1 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#186) | 1.53 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#147) | 1.97 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#259) | 0.550 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 28.5% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 24.3% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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