Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Under |
| Money | ARK -200 LSU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +8 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -5.2 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.5 (-6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -6.5 (+1.5) | 158.3 (-0.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -4.8 (+3.2) | 156.7 (+1.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -5.6 (+2.4) | 158.4 (-0.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -5.8 (+2.2) | 156.0 (+2.0) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | ARK 91 – 62 LSU |
| Jan 24, 2026 | ARK 85 – 81 LSU |
| Feb 13, 2025 | ARK 70 – 58 LSU |
| Jan 15, 2025 | LSU 78 – 74 ARK |
| Mar 7, 2024 | ARK 94 – 83 LSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-7 | 19-10 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 11-6 |
| Home | 16-1 | 11-2 |
| Away | 5-4 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 81.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 15.9 (#11) | 13.1 (#28) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.61 (#19) | 2.00 (#49) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.14 (#23) | 2.56 (#47) |
| RPI | 0.604 (#21) | 0.593 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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