Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | HPU -250 UPST +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +5 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -6.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (-13.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -4.1 (+0.9) | 135.0 (-10.0) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -4.3 (+0.7) | 130.2 (-5.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -4.0 (+1.0) | 134.6 (-9.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -4.0 (+1.0) | 135.2 (-10.2) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | HPU 95 – 70 UPST |
| Jan 18, 2026 | HPU 89 – 69 UPST |
| Feb 27, 2025 | HPU 88 – 66 UPST |
| Jan 23, 2025 | HPU 86 – 77 UPST |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UPST 86 – 81 HPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-15 | 5-18 |
| Conference | 6-11 | 5-11 |
| Home | 5-5 | 3-8 |
| Away | 4-10 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 74.1 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#268) | -10.1 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.85 (#315) | -2.21 (#325) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.05 (#300) | -2.43 (#313) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#282) | 0.442 (#271) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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