Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | VAL +110 INST -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +12 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | INST -3.3 (+15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.7 (-4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -3.3 (+15.3) | 133.4 (-5.4) | 33% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -2.8 (+14.8) | 130.2 (-2.2) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -3.7 (+15.7) | 132.0 (-4.0) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | INST -3.7 (+15.7) | 132.8 (-4.8) | 30% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | VAL 63 – 62 INST |
| Feb 15, 2026 | VAL 76 – 75 INST |
| Jan 31, 2026 | VAL 76 – 72 INST |
| Feb 6, 2025 | INST 80 – 62 VAL |
| Jan 9, 2025 | VAL 98 – 95 INST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-18 | 15-10 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 6-6 | 9-3 |
| Away | 4-11 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.3 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 65.8 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#211) | 2.8 (#126) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#241) | 0.83 (#106) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#250) | 0.85 (#116) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#273) | 0.544 (#91) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 20.4% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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