Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | UNA +210 LIP -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNA +7 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | LIP -3.5 (+10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (-1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIP -3.8 (+10.8) | 138.5 (+0.5) | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIP -2.6 (+9.6) | 135.7 (+3.3) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIP -3.5 (+10.5) | 137.9 (+1.1) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LIP -3.6 (+10.6) | 138.8 (+0.2) | 35% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | LIP 73 – 51 UNA |
| Mar 9, 2025 | LIP 76 – 65 UNA |
| Feb 21, 2025 | LIP 75 – 63 UNA |
| Jan 24, 2025 | UNA 74 – 64 LIP |
| Mar 6, 2024 | UNA 77 – 75 LIP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNA | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-11 | 15-12 |
| Conference | 7-8 | 9-6 |
| Home | 8-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -10.0 (#306) | -4.1 (#238) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.60 (#299) | -0.66 (#226) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.97 (#297) | -0.82 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.424 (#296) | 0.497 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNA | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.64 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 16.2% |
Game Analysis
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