Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | EVAN +210 MOST -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +9 | 171 | Lost |
| Massey | MOST -7.8 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (+34.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -7.0 (-2.0) | 138.3 (+32.7) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -5.9 (-3.1) | 135.0 (+36.0) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -6.6 (-2.4) | 134.8 (+36.2) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -7.8 (-1.2) | 139.8 (+31.2) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2025 | MOST 71 – 54 EVAN |
| Dec 29, 2024 | EVAN 57 – 40 MOST |
| Jan 14, 2024 | MOST 74 – 64 EVAN |
| Nov 30, 2023 | MOST 90 – 78 EVAN |
| Feb 12, 2023 | MOST 66 – 60 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-16 | 17-7 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 1-10 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#233) | 6.2 (#86) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#234) | 1.17 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#248) | 1.17 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#234) | 0.541 (#97) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 26.9 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 19.0% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.5% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 77.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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