Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | BC +275 ND -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BC +4 | 184 | Won |
| Massey | ND -4.4 (+8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.6 (+32.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -4.0 (+8.0) | 148.4 (+35.6) | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -2.3 (+6.3) | 151.1 (+32.9) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -3.9 (+7.9) | 151.2 (+32.8) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ND -4.2 (+8.2) | 150.4 (+33.6) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | BC 77 – 69 ND |
| Jan 24, 2026 | ND 68 – 64 BC |
| Feb 13, 2025 | ND 97 – 94 BC |
| Jan 14, 2025 | ND 78 – 60 BC |
| Jan 27, 2024 | BC 61 – 58 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-16 | 11-15 |
| Conference | 2-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 3-5 | 6-5 |
| Away | 0-7 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.5 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#145) | 8.0 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#227) | 1.01 (#89) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#195) | 1.54 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#292) | 0.526 (#124) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 6.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 20.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 12.8% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 12.9% |
Game Analysis
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