I'm so tired of being lonely, I still have some love to give. "Handle With Care" - The Travelling WIlburys
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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79–34 on winners spread MAE 8.5 113 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
North Florida @ Jacksonville -0.2 142.5 50% 50–62 ✗
Saint Peter's @ Mount St. Mary's +0.4 133.5 51% 70–65 ✗
Marist @ Manhattan -7.5 133.0 21% 57–50 ✓
Iona @ Rider +0.2 147.1 50% 75–78 ✓
Niagara @ Canisius +0.6 143.7 57% 59–69 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Dartmouth -4.7 132.6 29% 82–69 ✓
Toledo @ Bowling Green -2.2 154.3 43% 68–76 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Green Bay +1.4 143.0 56% 85–59 ✗
Yale @ Cornell +3.4 149.5 69% 62–65 ✓
Princeton @ Harvard -5.9 139.5 30% 66–53 ✓
Brown @ Columbia +5.3 140.3 69% 66–64 ✗
Youngstown State @ Milwaukee -2.6 155.0 40% 84–80 ✓
Duquesne @ Fordham -3.8 136.2 37% 67–79 ✗
Fairfield @ Quinnipiac +2.0 154.8 63% 85–81 ✗
Nevada @ San José State -12.2 139.8 17% 84–63 ✓
Houston @ Baylor -0.2 138.9 54% 82–76 ✓
Notre Dame @ Syracuse +6.5 134.8 75% 85–88 ✓
Hampton @ Northeastern +11.2 146.2 87% 62–70 ✓
Charleston @ Towson +0.5 140.9 43% 72–56 ✗
Indiana @ Penn State +4.6 150.4 69% 74–83 ✓
Missouri @ Arkansas +5.0 147.3 75% 73–88 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Florida +16.3 155.6 89% 64–77 ✓
William & Mary @ Stony Brook +7.8 144.4 83% 62–75 ✓
Western Carolina @ VMI -15.6 146.8 13% 84–51 ✓
Chattanooga @ The Citadel -3.5 144.7 35% 62–71 ✗
UMBC @ New Hampshire +6.6 156.6 76% 86–68 ✗
UAlbany @ UMass Lowell +8.1 158.9 82% 95–104 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Eastern Kentucky +11.3 151.1 87% 82–95 ✓
Washington @ Arizona +14.5 170.3 88% 75–91 ✓
West Virginia @ Iowa State +17.7 144.3 91% 64–71 ✓
Duke @ Wake Forest +2.0 145.5 65% 79–83 ✓
BYU @ Kansas State -4.2 145.9 38% 74–84 ✗
Boston College @ NC State +3.8 152.2 73% 70–81 ✓
Lehigh @ Lafayette +0.5 141.3 48% 71–63 ✗
East Carolina @ Rice +0.1 140.4 50% 52–70 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Winthrop +9.3 142.2 83% 74–83 ✓
Longwood @ Radford +0.8 144.1 55% 82–88 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ UNC Asheville +6.7 150.3 77% 78–77 ✗
High Point @ Charleston Southern -8.6 150.7 19% 74–59 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Monmouth +11.5 143.8 88% 67–83 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Le Moyne +4.3 152.5 68% 68–58 ✗
Central Connecticut @ Sacred Heart -0.1 142.8 49% 68–67 ✓
Saint Francis @ Stonehill +0.2 135.5 55% 63–72 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Ball State +9.0 142.2 78% 58–56 ✗
Wofford @ Furman +4.8 148.3 73% 67–82 ✓
Texas State @ Georgia State +4.1 136.7 70% 68–59 ✗
NJIT @ Maine +8.6 129.9 76% 58–68 ✓
Oral Roberts @ South Dakota -1.0 154.6 48% 76–77 ✗
North Dakota @ North Dakota State +2.3 145.2 64% 68–73 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Stetson +4.8 157.5 74% 72–84 ✓
Iowa @ Illinois +9.0 167.9 84% 85–95 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Massachusetts +4.1 147.3 68% 75–67 ✗
Buffalo @ Western Michigan +7.1 142.0 76% 72–91 ✓
Cincinnati @ TCU +4.7 146.7 77% 57–75 ✓
George Washington @ Saint Louis +1.9 162.7 68% 91–96 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Samford +13.4 149.8 87% 71–87 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ South Dakota State +2.8 143.2 66% 72–77 ✓
Utah Tech @ UT Arlington +9.4 148.7 82% 78–89 ✓
South Carolina @ Ole Miss +1.4 138.0 53% 72–59 ✗
Central Michigan @ Miami (OH) +2.1 131.8 62% 60–88 ✓
Troy @ UL Monroe -5.1 145.4 33% 84–78 ✓
South Alabama @ Arkansas State +5.1 155.7 73% 78–95 ✓
North Carolina @ Virginia -3.1 129.0 34% 54–44 ✓
Alabama @ Kentucky -0.1 182.7 59% 95–117 ✗
Texas Tech @ UCF +0.3 143.0 57% 61–75 ✓
Morgan State @ Howard +8.9 152.0 81% 72–78 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ North Carolina Central +9.4 137.8 83% 55–88 ✓
Delaware State @ South Carolina State +1.3 138.2 63% 62–69 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Miami +8.9 143.1 78% 80–76 ✗
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State -2.0 139.5 40% 84–82 ✓
UTSA @ North Texas +13.1 140.3 85% 64–62 ✗
Valparaiso @ Murray State +12.0 144.3 87% 68–80 ✓
Alabama State @ Florida A&M -3.1 131.9 38% 65–73 ✗
Air Force @ New Mexico +17.9 145.6 90% 78–77 ✗
Norfolk State @ Coppin State -10.3 131.0 14% 68–66 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Tennessee Tech -0.4 131.9 49% 67–75 ✗
Jackson State @ Alcorn State +0.8 142.9 58% 73–87 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Nicholls +6.8 141.6 77% 70–85 ✓
North Alabama @ Bellarmine -2.1 143.8 48% 70–82 ✗
Alabama A&M @ Bethune-Cookman +3.5 142.8 66% 61–63 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Utah Valley +3.8 134.9 71% 62–71 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Abilene Christian -8.6 145.1 22% 73–79 ✗
UC Irvine @ UC San Diego +1.0 144.9 54% 88–92 ✓
Idaho @ Northern Arizona +2.3 138.9 60% 86–76 ✗
George Mason @ Loyola Chicago +2.4 136.7 69% 59–80 ✓
Ohio @ Northern Illinois -3.2 149.6 40% 80–59 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Mercer -3.3 138.7 39% 72–86 ✗
Southern Indiana @ Western Illinois +6.2 133.0 75% 76–82 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Tennessee State +2.1 140.3 61% 71–76 ✓
Little Rock @ Lindenwood -8.7 144.6 16% 82–73 ✓
New Orleans @ SE Louisiana +9.2 148.4 82% 67–77 ✓
Northwestern State @ Houston Christian -2.4 146.6 36% 86–73 ✓
UT Martin @ Southeast Missouri State -8.3 153.6 20% 82–72 ✓
Oregon State @ Stanford +7.4 143.6 77% 85–73 ✗
James Madison @ Georgia Southern -12.7 156.1 13% 80–74 ✓
Incarnate Word @ McNeese +22.1 146.6 91% 71–87 ✓
California Baptist @ Tarleton State +6.5 135.7 77% 65–82 ✓
Lipscomb @ Austin Peay +1.4 152.3 57% 90–85 ✗
Virginia Tech @ Pittsburgh +4.0 144.0 71% 64–79 ✓
Texas @ Kansas +5.9 139.8 73% 67–86 ✓
Auburn @ Georgia -7.5 149.5 25% 97–76 ✓
Drake @ Northern Iowa -1.9 148.9 42% 77–91 ✗
Missouri State @ Belmont +4.2 150.7 76% 78–93 ✓
Georgetown @ DePaul -3.6 151.1 26% 77–76 ✓
Davidson @ Richmond +6.2 134.7 76% 63–66 ✓
Yale @ Columbia -4.2 140.1 35% 84–76 ✓
Princeton @ Dartmouth -14.9 132.6 12% 68–56 ✓
App State @ Marshall -7.7 146.9 28% 65–58 ✓
Brown @ Cornell +12.5 151.1 85% 78–74 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Seattle U +15.3 144.5 88% 56–84 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Florida International -2.4 135.2 42% 77–75 ✓
Grambling @ Southern +4.9 132.8 70% 63–57 ✗
Prairie View A&M @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +0.2 151.2 52% 59–72 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.