I'm so tired of being lonely, I still have some love to give. "Handle With Care" - The Travelling WIlburys
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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76–34 on winners spread MAE 10.0 110 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Purdue @ Penn State -0.2 141.6 49% 73–52 ✓
Drake @ Bradley -7.2 138.8 26% 80–71 ✓
Missouri State @ Evansville -7.7 137.1 24% 90–81 ✓
Indiana State @ Valparaiso -3.8 133.0 37% 58–43 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Sacred Heart +1.3 160.1 55% 64–70 ✓
Richmond @ Saint Louis +3.7 146.3 63% 67–72 ✓
Arkansas State @ UT Arlington +2.9 144.4 60% 71–73 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Troy -6.2 133.1 29% 75–59 ✓
North Texas @ Marshall +2.0 141.3 57% 77–65 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ Old Dominion +10.1 134.3 82% 61–67 ✓
UAB @ UTSA -5.5 145.4 31% 64–57 ✓
Bowling Green @ Akron +4.7 154.7 67% 83–71 ✗
UC San Diego @ UC Irvine +11.8 138.4 86% 55–80 ✓
Southern Utah @ Northern Arizona -8.9 147.0 21% 92–62 ✓
Montana State @ Idaho -13.4 139.4 11% 69–74 ✗
Louisiana @ Little Rock +0.8 149.6 53% 66–61 ✗
Rice @ Louisiana Tech +9.1 145.4 80% 57–101 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Southern Miss -0.1 134.9 50% 69–60 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Utah Valley +2.2 143.1 58% 74–78 ✓
New Mexico State @ Tarleton State -0.5 130.2 48% 78–51 ✓
Kansas City @ South Dakota State +8.7 134.8 78% 49–67 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Loyola Chicago +21.3 124.7 97% 52–60 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Illinois State +1.6 145.8 56% 70–56 ✗
Nevada @ Utah State +8.7 140.1 79% 72–75 ✓
Georgia State @ South Alabama -1.3 151.6 45% 84–81 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Seattle U -7.7 131.4 24% 57–63 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ Cal State Bakersfield +10.9 139.4 84% 58–84 ✓
Fresno State @ UNLV +5.4 131.9 69% 67–68 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Riverside -2.3 132.2 42% 72–68 ✓
Long Beach State @ Hawai'i +12.4 155.0 87% 76–78 ✓
Michigan @ Indiana -7.6 142.8 25% 73–57 ✓
Texas @ Texas Tech +3.3 140.7 62% 59–68 ✓
Tennessee @ Auburn -5.1 143.6 32% 72–77 ✗
Navy @ Loyola Maryland -0.8 137.2 47% 73–67 ✓
Georgetown @ DePaul -1.7 137.3 44% 68–60 ✓
Syracuse @ Georgia Tech +3.8 150.6 64% 77–84 ✓
Liberty @ Bellarmine -2.7 130.0 40% 94–78 ✓
Stony Brook @ UMass Lowell -0.6 135.8 48% 62–64 ✗
South Carolina @ Georgia +5.8 163.4 70% 91–70 ✗
Mercer @ Western Carolina -6.6 157.4 27% 61–85 ✗
Central Michigan @ Ball State +12.0 151.3 86% 91–97 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Eastern Michigan +3.9 134.7 64% 57–91 ✓
Montana @ Idaho State -3.5 124.0 38% 59–58 ✓
Illinois @ Wisconsin -1.3 139.0 45% 74–69 ✓
LSU @ Arkansas +4.7 165.3 67% 75–83 ✓
North Florida @ Stetson +3.9 148.4 64% 68–85 ✓
Binghamton @ Hartford +8.2 133.2 77% 60–77 ✓
Presbyterian @ Hampton +3.0 135.7 61% 65–67 ✓
American University @ Bucknell +3.8 141.1 64% 78–71 ✗
Florida A&M @ South Carolina State -11.9 135.3 14% 57–63 ✗
Washington @ Arizona +16.9 147.2 94% 74–75 ✓
VCU @ Davidson -0.5 133.7 48% 57–65 ✗
Miami @ Clemson +12.7 124.2 88% 58–66 ✓
Notre Dame @ Boston College -4.3 152.0 35% 90–94 ✗
Rice @ Louisiana Tech +9.1 145.4 80% 58–79 ✓
North Texas @ Marshall +2.0 141.3 57% 72–73 ✓
Buffalo @ Ohio +0.7 162.4 53% 86–66 ✗
Portland State @ Northern Colorado +0.1 130.8 50% 73–65 ✗
Weber State @ Sacramento State -9.9 150.5 18% 72–70 ✓
Marquette @ UConn +6.7 134.8 73% 62–80 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma +4.9 144.3 67% 94–90 ✗
Boston University @ Army +8.9 139.8 79% 75–63 ✗
Lipscomb @ North Alabama -3.8 141.5 37% 66–73 ✗
App State @ Georgia Southern -0.9 136.1 47% 57–65 ✗
Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt -3.4 134.2 38% 70–75 ✗
Kansas State @ West Virginia +18.0 141.3 95% 43–65 ✓
Florida State @ North Carolina -2.4 153.5 41% 70–78 ✗
Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech +10.0 135.3 82% 46–84 ✓
Boise State @ San Diego State +5.9 138.3 70% 58–62 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ High Point +5.4 138.0 69% 60–65 ✓
Lehigh @ Lafayette +10.1 158.0 82% 69–75 ✓
Oregon @ California -8.3 132.9 22% 74–63 ✓
Air Force @ Colorado State +22.0 132.1 98% 49–72 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Northwestern State +4.4 150.6 65% 61–79 ✓
Florida @ Kentucky -1.3 137.9 45% 71–67 ✓
Belmont @ Morehead State -4.1 136.8 36% 82–89 ✗
UAB @ UTSA -5.5 145.4 31% 79–96 ✗
Pepperdine @ San Diego -5.9 149.9 30% 90–84 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ East Tennessee State +1.4 128.6 55% 85–74 ✗
La Salle @ George Mason +5.0 141.0 68% 54–89 ✓
North Dakota State @ South Dakota +1.8 134.9 56% 71–80 ✓
Kent State @ Miami (OH) -2.4 147.8 42% 64–51 ✓
Creighton @ Xavier -3.0 151.0 39% 69–77 ✗
NJIT @ UAlbany +4.0 137.0 64% 66–76 ✓
Western Illinois @ Oral Roberts +11.3 163.2 85% 81–85 ✓
UT Martin @ Eastern Illinois +9.9 142.8 82% 73–68 ✗
Austin Peay @ Jacksonville State +5.3 144.6 68% 67–75 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Troy -6.2 133.1 29% 76–71 ✓
Arkansas State @ UT Arlington +2.9 144.4 60% 56–64 ✓
Louisiana @ Little Rock +0.8 149.6 53% 59–69 ✓
UL Monroe @ Texas State +9.3 120.0 80% 57–61 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Southern Miss -0.1 134.9 50% 73–66 ✓
Western Michigan @ Toledo +18.1 141.7 95% 44–91 ✓
UC Davis @ Cal Poly -8.0 135.7 23% 68–66 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Lamar -10.5 146.6 17% 83–88 ✗
Alcorn State @ Southern +7.9 140.1 76% 75–89 ✓
Texas Southern @ Alabama State -10.7 136.0 16% 86–76 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Alabama A&M -8.4 130.7 22% 55–54 ✓
Alabama @ Mississippi State -6.1 144.8 29% 64–59 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Loyola Chicago +21.3 124.7 97% 58–65 ✓
Elon @ UNC Wilmington +5.7 139.9 70% 80–77 ✗
Northern Iowa @ Illinois State +1.6 145.8 56% 94–87 ✗
Indiana State @ Valparaiso -3.8 133.0 37% 58–70 ✗
Louisville @ Duke +4.1 141.1 65% 80–73 ✗
Omaha @ Denver -1.8 151.7 44% 80–76 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ SIU Edwardsville -1.6 140.5 44% 69–63 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Central Arkansas -18.6 143.3 5% 82–84 ✗
Charlotte @ UTEP +5.6 126.6 69% 47–70 ✓
TCU @ Iowa State -1.2 139.5 46% 76–72 ✓
Oregon State @ Stanford +7.7 135.8 76% 73–62 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.