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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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34–15 on winners spread MAE 8.7 49 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Santa Clara @ Gonzaga	+30.8	155.3	100%	75–89	✓
Iowa @ Michigan	+3.0	161.1	61%	57–79	✓
Nebraska @ Illinois	+19.5	147.0	96%	70–86	✓
Western Kentucky @ Houston	+15.2	137.4	92%	57–81	✓
Robert Morris @ Detroit Mercy	+11.5	152.2	85%	73–83	✓
Florida A&M @ South Carolina State	-12.6	134.6	13%	75–67	✓
Washington @ Arizona State	+10.4	156.0	83%	72–80	✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Saint Francis	-1.4	123.5	45%	72–65	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Sacred Heart	+3.0	161.6	61%	82–69	✗
Long Island University @ Bryant	+10.2	160.9	82%	80–87	✓
Wagner @ Central Connecticut	-7.6	137.3	25%	83–63	✓
Tennessee State @ Morehead State	+13.4	127.5	89%	60–74	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Prairie View A&M	+34.6	142.1	100%	62–82	✓
UIC @ Youngstown State	+3.7	142.2	63%	58–74	✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Green Bay	+5.0	151.7	67%	89–84	✗
IU Indianapolis @ Milwaukee	+4.6	151.8	66%	72–84	✓
UCLA @ Utah	-1.6	138.3	44%	76–61	✓
Belmont @ Eastern Kentucky	-6.5	165.9	28%	67–81	✗
Weber State @ Sacramento State	-10.2	149.8	18%	82–73	✓
Murray State @ Jacksonville State	-0.5	136.6	48%	74–87	✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Eastern Illinois	+1.6	141.5	56%	94–88	✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Texas Southern	+17.0	144.4	94%	65–79	✓
Portland State @ Northern Colorado	-0.3	130.8	49%	64–66	✗
Ohio State @ Michigan State	-7.9	147.8	24%	67–71	✗
USC @ Colorado	+1.6	137.5	56%	62–80	✓
Boise State @ San Diego State	+5.4	137.5	69%	66–78	✓
San Francisco @ BYU	+11.7	141.9	86%	73–79	✓
Oregon @ Stanford	+0.9	139.0	53%	71–68	✗
Northwestern @ Minnesota	+5.2	147.4	68%	67–59	✗
Austin Peay @ Tennessee Tech	-6.4	145.9	28%	76–81	✗
Loyola Marymount @ Pepperdine	+1.9	146.9	57%	81–74	✗
Montana @ Idaho State	-3.3	124.3	38%	64–58	✓
Oregon State @ California	-1.6	130.2	44%	59–57	✓
Pacific @ Saint Mary's	+6.5	122.6	72%	46–58	✓
Washington State @ Arizona	+9.0	142.0	79%	53–69	✓
North Florida @ Stetson	+5.1	147.8	68%	79–74	✗
Rider @ Saint Peter's	+11.1	131.9	84%	52–66	✓
Tulane @ Cincinnati	+4.1	131.1	65%	71–91	✓
Wagner @ Central Connecticut	-7.6	137.3	25%	77–83	✗
Long Island University @ Bryant	+10.2	160.9	82%	60–63	✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Merrimack	+2.8	143.4	60%	67–75	✓
Drexel @ James Madison	+3.1	140.7	61%	84–78	✗
Manhattan @ Siena	+10.5	124.3	83%	69–74	✓
UL Monroe @ Texas State	+9.3	121.2	80%	49–58	✓
UC Davis @ Cal Poly	-8.0	136.7	23%	69–61	✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Kennesaw State	-6.9	130.5	26%	63–80	✗
George Washington @ St. Bonaventure	+15.4	141.6	92%	41–88	✓
Omaha @ Denver	-1.6	151.2	44%	80–76	✓
App State @ Georgia Southern	-0.4	133.4	48%	84–78	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.