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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
18–13 on winners
spread MAE 10.6
31 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Duquesne
@
La Salle
|
-2.8 | 135.5 | 40% | 65–85 | ✗ |
Marquette
@
North Carolina
|
+9.0 | 141.5 | 79% | 83–70 | ✗ |
Holy Cross
@
Boston University
|
+3.4 | 142.0 | 62% | 86–75 | ✗ |
American University
@
Loyola Maryland
|
+5.2 | 144.4 | 68% | 49–60 | ✓ |
Seton Hall
@
Butler
|
-6.7 | 131.8 | 27% | 52–61 | ✗ |
Temple
@
South Florida
|
+3.2 | 136.8 | 62% | 65–47 | ✗ |
South Carolina
@
Mississippi State
|
+6.0 | 149.1 | 71% | 48–69 | ✓ |
The Citadel
@
Furman
|
+16.0 | 162.7 | 93% | 63–72 | ✓ |
Chattanooga
@
Mercer
|
+4.3 | 145.4 | 65% | 77–81 | ✓ |
Western Carolina
@
UNC Greensboro
|
+14.2 | 143.6 | 90% | 81–80 | ✗ |
Stephen F. Austin
@
Northwestern State
|
-7.7 | 158.9 | 24% | 83–57 | ✓ |
Tulane
@
Memphis
|
+10.9 | 127.7 | 84% | 46–61 | ✓ |
Indiana
@
Rutgers
|
+3.2 | 135.1 | 61% | 63–74 | ✓ |
McNeese
@
SE Louisiana
|
+5.3 | 145.8 | 68% | 95–91 | ✗ |
LSU New Orleans
@
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
|
-1.8 | 145.2 | 44% | 69–61 | ✓ |
Houston Christian
@
Nicholls
|
+11.0 | 156.6 | 84% | 68–83 | ✓ |
Lamar
@
Incarnate Word
|
+5.8 | 133.8 | 70% | 67–45 | ✗ |
Northern Arizona
@
Southern Utah
|
+14.4 | 144.7 | 90% | 80–85 | ✓ |
Florida State
@
Miami
|
-13.4 | 145.9 | 11% | 88–71 | ✓ |
Sam Houston
@
Abilene Christian
|
+10.7 | 137.7 | 83% | 72–86 | ✓ |
Alabama
@
Arkansas
|
-0.0 | 158.0 | 50% | 66–81 | ✗ |
DePaul
@
Creighton
|
+16.0 | 144.0 | 93% | 53–77 | ✓ |
Tennessee
@
Vanderbilt
|
-8.0 | 138.5 | 23% | 70–58 | ✓ |
Xavier
@
Providence
|
-1.0 | 143.0 | 46% | 68–83 | ✗ |
Cincinnati
@
Tulsa
|
+3.3 | 130.3 | 62% | 70–69 | ✗ |
Fresno State
@
UNLV
|
+6.6 | 132.0 | 72% | 67–64 | ✗ |
Miami (OH)
@
Western Michigan
|
-4.8 | 132.8 | 33% | 74–66 | ✓ |
Eastern Michigan
@
Ohio
|
+19.6 | 149.4 | 96% | 67–86 | ✓ |
Central Michigan
@
Buffalo
|
+22.0 | 162.9 | 98% | 73–85 | ✓ |
St. Francis Brooklyn
@
Merrimack
|
+4.8 | 141.7 | 67% | 84–71 | ✗ |
UT Martin
@
SIU Edwardsville
|
+6.8 | 141.1 | 73% | 53–66 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.