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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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20–10 on winners spread MAE 12.3 30 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Illinois @ Michigan State -11.5 146.9 15% 72–81 ✗
West Virginia @ TCU -9.2 148.2 20% 74–66 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech +3.2 144.1 61% 69–53 ✗
High Point @ Campbell +3.7 136.6 63% 48–68 ✓
Bowling Green @ Eastern Michigan -12.1 149.2 14% 82–69 ✓
Notre Dame @ Louisville +2.3 139.5 58% 57–69 ✓
LSU @ Georgia -6.5 169.4 28% 78–91 ✗
Florida @ Auburn -1.9 154.0 43% 74–57 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Prairie View A&M +19.9 137.7 97% 56–72 ✓
Iowa State @ Baylor +29.3 147.2 100% 72–77 ✓
St. John's @ Villanova +11.0 161.0 84% 58–81 ✓
Penn State @ Nebraska -6.3 143.4 28% 86–83 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Texas Southern +32.4 151.0 100% 45–82 ✓
Oklahoma @ Kansas State -13.6 134.4 11% 57–62 ✗
Kansas @ Texas +2.0 142.0 57% 72–75 ✓
Ole Miss @ Missouri +3.1 134.5 61% 60–53 ✗
Washington @ Arizona State +8.2 155.3 77% 64–97 ✓
UConn @ Georgetown -3.2 138.4 39% 70–57 ✓
Kent State @ Ball State -5.3 146.7 32% 71–90 ✗
Alabama A&M @ Southern +6.0 134.0 71% 57–73 ✓
Clemson @ Wake Forest -4.3 128.3 35% 60–39 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Davidson -0.7 132.6 48% 56–53 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ North Carolina Central +4.6 146.5 66% 79–63 ✗
Alabama State @ Alcorn State +5.5 134.9 69% 59–68 ✓
Delaware State @ Norfolk State +16.4 155.1 93% 55–86 ✓
George Washington @ George Mason +6.3 150.1 72% 58–63 ✓
Hampton @ Longwood +8.1 135.9 77% 74–68 ✗
New Mexico @ Air Force +0.6 123.7 52% 55–62 ✓
Dayton @ Saint Joseph's -9.2 151.3 20% 84–97 ✗
NC State @ Virginia +9.8 129.5 81% 68–61 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.