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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
19–4 on winners
spread MAE 9.8
23 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Texas State
@
Arkansas State
|
-2.4 | 132.8 | 41% | 57–52 | ✓ |
William & Mary
@
Elon
|
+4.0 | 133.8 | 64% | 54–73 | ✓ |
Evansville
@
Drake
|
+16.4 | 139.6 | 93% | 63–74 | ✓ |
Valparaiso
@
Southern Illinois
|
+0.9 | 130.5 | 53% | 64–67 | ✓ |
Syracuse
@
Duke
|
+2.8 | 151.8 | 60% | 71–85 | ✓ |
The Citadel
@
Mercer
|
+7.9 | 168.5 | 76% | 52–88 | ✓ |
Houston Christian
@
Northwestern State
|
+3.6 | 159.8 | 63% | 80–86 | ✓ |
SE Louisiana
@
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
|
+2.0 | 138.0 | 57% | 78–75 | ✗ |
Central Arkansas
@
LSU New Orleans
|
+4.6 | 156.0 | 66% | 63–88 | ✓ |
Sam Houston
@
Lamar
|
-10.9 | 144.0 | 16% | 77–71 | ✓ |
Alabama State
@
Southern
|
+11.3 | 130.9 | 85% | 66–75 | ✓ |
Alabama A&M
@
Alcorn State
|
-2.0 | 140.2 | 43% | 52–65 | ✗ |
Texas Tech
@
Oklahoma State
|
-2.8 | 140.1 | 40% | 69–74 | ✗ |
Oregon
@
USC
|
+6.4 | 139.0 | 72% | 58–72 | ✓ |
New Mexico
@
Air Force
|
+1.5 | 122.0 | 55% | 73–65 | ✗ |
North Alabama
@
Liberty
|
+17.5 | 135.1 | 94% | 54–74 | ✓ |
Akron
@
Ohio
|
+1.5 | 154.3 | 56% | 73–90 | ✓ |
Pacific
@
San Diego
|
-4.1 | 136.6 | 35% | 77–67 | ✓ |
Miami (OH)
@
Central Michigan
|
-3.1 | 151.6 | 39% | 96–54 | ✓ |
Buffalo
@
Northern Illinois
|
-18.4 | 143.2 | 5% | 102–74 | ✓ |
App State
@
Georgia State
|
+6.7 | 145.1 | 73% | 71–85 | ✓ |
Massachusetts
@
Richmond
|
+7.2 | 157.7 | 74% | 65–79 | ✓ |
Saint Louis
@
VCU
|
+1.9 | 138.8 | 57% | 65–67 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.