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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
10–2 on winners
spread MAE 5.7
12 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Wisconsin
@
Northwestern
|
-4.5 | 133.7 | 34% | 68–51 | ✓ |
Butler
@
Xavier
|
+10.7 | 135.0 | 83% | 51–63 | ✓ |
North Alabama
@
Liberty
|
+17.2 | 136.0 | 94% | 54–74 | ✓ |
Eastern Kentucky
@
Southeast Missouri State
|
-4.5 | 156.3 | 34% | 87–65 | ✓ |
UNC Greensboro
@
Western Carolina
|
-8.1 | 144.3 | 23% | 77–56 | ✓ |
Little Rock
@
UL Monroe
|
-2.6 | 134.1 | 41% | 64–68 | ✗ |
Grambling
@
Jackson State
|
+4.6 | 128.9 | 66% | 59–63 | ✓ |
Gardner-Webb
@
South Carolina Upstate
|
-7.6 | 143.5 | 24% | 69–58 | ✓ |
UT Arlington
@
Louisiana
|
+5.3 | 148.6 | 69% | 74–76 | ✓ |
Charleston Southern
@
Presbyterian
|
+4.9 | 126.6 | 67% | 78–77 | ✗ |
Morehead State
@
SIU Edwardsville
|
-9.2 | 130.5 | 20% | 56–48 | ✓ |
Pepperdine
@
Saint Mary's
|
+6.0 | 134.6 | 71% | 61–66 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.