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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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31–22 on winners spread MAE 9.6 53 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Monmouth @ Iona	+0.6	159.5	52%	65–88	✓
Saint Francis @ Wagner	+7.3	137.2	75%	52–67	✓
Central Connecticut @ Long Island University	+10.0	145.4	82%	74–87	✓
Hawai'i @ Cal State Northridge	-6.7	146.9	27%	80–88	✗
Cal Poly @ Long Beach State	+8.1	143.6	77%	69–74	✓
San Diego State @ Fresno State	-15.4	128.2	8%	75–57	✓
DePaul @ St. John's	+10.8	149.8	84%	88–83	✗
San Diego @ Gonzaga	+34.2	158.1	100%	69–106	✓
Virginia @ Duke	-3.3	132.3	38%	65–66	✗
Kennesaw State @ Lipscomb	+11.6	133.9	85%	63–77	✓
Marist @ Saint Peter's	+7.5	117.5	75%	51–50	✗
Colorado @ Oregon State	-9.2	135.1	20%	61–57	✓
Denver @ Kansas City	+13.0	128.5	88%	69–80	✓
North Dakota @ Omaha	+1.6	144.7	56%	81–69	✗
Green Bay @ UIC	+2.3	142.0	58%	69–59	✗
UC Riverside @ UC San Diego	-9.9	137.5	18%	82–83	✗
UC Irvine @ Cal State Fullerton	-7.0	145.8	26%	64–67	✗
South Dakota State @ North Dakota State	-0.7	140.7	47%	82–84	✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Murray State	+14.2	136.6	90%	62–89	✓
Utah @ Oregon	+6.9	138.0	73%	64–67	✓
Utah Valley @ New Mexico State	+1.1	144.6	54%	60–67	✓
California Baptist @ Grand Canyon	+11.8	144.7	86%	65–62	✗
Tarleton State @ Utah Tech	-6.0	143.4	29%	48–64	✗
California @ Washington	+0.8	139.4	53%	51–62	✓
Arizona State @ UCLA	+9.8	151.7	81%	79–80	✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Santa Barbara	+8.9	129.7	79%	44–63	✓
Rhode Island @ George Washington	-8.0	150.6	23%	70–78	✗
Siena @ Niagara	-2.4	124.6	41%	68–66	✓
Michigan @ Ohio State	+0.6	148.2	52%	92–87	✗
Cincinnati @ Houston	+16.4	134.1	93%	52–90	✓
Boston University @ Colgate	+21.4	151.5	97%	63–78	✓
Rider @ Quinnipiac	+5.7	144.0	70%	68–93	✓
Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina	+9.5	142.5	81%	55–65	✓
South Florida @ Temple	+2.5	133.6	59%	83–76	✗
Stony Brook @ UAlbany	+2.4	131.7	59%	59–67	✓
Sacred Heart @ St. Francis Brooklyn	+3.2	161.9	62%	88–82	✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Fairleigh Dickinson	-0.7	136.9	48%	74–61	✓
Binghamton @ NJIT	+7.2	142.1	74%	72–58	✗
Army @ Holy Cross	-7.3	144.6	25%	51–67	✗
Maryland @ Rutgers	+3.3	130.8	62%	68–59	✗
Davidson @ St. Bonaventure	+3.8	133.1	64%	58–69	✓
Bryant @ Merrimack	-2.4	142.8	41%	76–60	✓
Evansville @ Drake	+16.7	137.9	94%	71–85	✓
North Carolina A&T @ Florida A&M	+7.9	138.4	76%	70–63	✗
UNLV @ San José State	-12.8	148.6	12%	67–64	✓
Central Connecticut @ Long Island University	+10.0	145.4	82%	79–81	✓
Saint Francis @ Wagner	+7.3	137.2	75%	68–70	✓
Penn State @ Iowa	+11.6	164.0	85%	68–74	✓
Prairie View A&M @ Texas Southern	-0.9	137.5	47%	77–75	✓
Valparaiso @ Southern Illinois	+1.0	130.3	54%	66–65	✗
Little Rock @ UL Monroe	-3.8	133.1	36%	66–78	✗
Lehigh @ Loyola Maryland	+14.6	141.9	91%	76–72	✗
Navy @ American University	-2.4	145.6	42%	69–60	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.