I'm gonna tell you how it's gonna be. "Not Fade Away"-The Rolling Stones
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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67–30 on winners spread MAE 9.6 97 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Jacksonville @ Stetson +5.4 133.7 69% 75–91 ✓
Monmouth @ Iona -0.1 156.4 50% 86–91 ✗
Saint Louis @ Dayton -5.5 141.2 31% 53–76 ✗
Cleveland State @ Purdue Fort Wayne -5.8 142.2 30% 68–75 ✗
Winthrop @ High Point -9.6 148.1 19% 71–63 ✓
Southern Miss @ Florida International +0.3 140.1 51% 85–72 ✗
Akron @ Ball State -3.9 144.2 36% 88–79 ✓
Hawai'i @ Cal State Northridge -7.4 147.3 25% 75–74 ✓
Cal Poly @ Long Beach State +9.0 147.6 79% 60–64 ✓
Old Dominion @ UAB +10.1 132.0 82% 69–76 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Lipscomb +11.3 134.5 85% 62–76 ✓
Marist @ Saint Peter's +7.9 117.6 76% 54–59 ✓
Denver @ Kansas City +13.3 128.9 89% 57–68 ✓
North Dakota @ Omaha +0.9 145.7 53% 62–72 ✓
Green Bay @ UIC +2.3 144.6 58% 58–61 ✓
UC Riverside @ UC San Diego -10.4 134.4 17% 81–75 ✓
South Dakota State @ North Dakota State -0.5 141.4 48% 68–67 ✓
Wyoming @ New Mexico -7.8 143.0 24% 79–67 ✓
Utah Valley @ New Mexico State +2.4 146.2 59% 69–66 ✗
California Baptist @ Grand Canyon +12.0 145.7 86% 61–71 ✓
Tarleton State @ Utah Tech -3.8 143.9 37% 77–59 ✓
Toledo @ Buffalo +2.2 162.4 58% 80–70 ✗
UC Irvine @ Cal State Fullerton -6.3 142.4 28% 89–78 ✓
UNLV @ San José State -12.2 150.4 13% 76–60 ✓
Utah State @ Boise State +2.4 138.8 59% 77–81 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Santa Barbara +9.6 129.9 81% 66–71 ✓
Navy @ American University -0.8 147.7 47% 72–60 ✓
UCF @ Tulane -0.9 126.2 47% 84–81 ✓
Michigan State @ Indiana +8.9 138.5 79% 78–71 ✗
Siena @ Niagara -2.9 124.2 40% 62–64 ✗
Georgia Tech @ Miami -5.6 141.0 31% 87–60 ✓
La Salle @ Saint Joseph's -1.0 153.6 46% 82–91 ✗
Vanderbilt @ Alabama +17.3 153.4 94% 78–82 ✓
UConn @ Villanova +6.4 140.7 72% 60–68 ✓
Kentucky @ Tennessee +9.5 130.8 81% 70–55 ✗
New Hampshire @ UMass Lowell +4.5 138.1 66% 69–67 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ Lehigh -5.8 146.5 30% 75–47 ✓
Boston University @ Colgate +23.1 150.4 98% 72–82 ✓
Rider @ Quinnipiac +4.6 144.0 66% 64–80 ✓
Wofford @ Western Carolina -4.5 148.7 34% 80–56 ✓
VMI @ The Citadel -3.0 172.7 39% 74–75 ✗
Texas Tech @ Kansas +1.0 134.0 54% 61–67 ✓
Missouri @ South Carolina -3.1 154.5 39% 93–78 ✓
Notre Dame @ Syracuse +3.6 151.1 63% 67–75 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Florida A&M +7.3 139.6 75% 57–71 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Fairleigh Dickinson -1.2 135.3 46% 71–76 ✗
NC State @ Wake Forest -0.6 142.6 48% 80–62 ✓
Furman @ Mercer -3.4 154.6 38% 70–60 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Kent State +21.7 152.3 98% 51–64 ✓
Elon @ William & Mary +4.4 134.3 66% 75–54 ✗
Sacramento State @ Southern Utah +7.5 150.6 75% 57–77 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Weber State +19.6 149.2 96% 52–74 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Montana -2.8 146.1 40% 90–76 ✓
George Mason @ VCU +13.4 134.6 89% 79–76 ✗
West Virginia @ Texas +2.5 151.5 59% 84–82 ✗
Holy Cross @ Army +13.4 146.0 89% 65–69 ✓
BYU @ Loyola Marymount -6.6 138.1 28% 88–71 ✓
Portland State @ Idaho -10.5 134.8 17% 71–40 ✓
Illinois @ Minnesota -6.4 153.5 28% 94–63 ✓
Georgia @ Florida +10.4 157.6 83% 63–70 ✓
Florida State @ Pittsburgh -6.1 152.1 29% 79–72 ✓
Binghamton @ NJIT +10.3 142.1 82% 76–63 ✗
Stony Brook @ UAlbany +5.3 136.2 69% 59–43 ✗
Stanford @ Washington State -2.1 134.3 42% 76–85 ✗
Merrimack @ Bryant +8.0 147.0 77% 58–60 ✓
Sacred Heart @ St. Francis Brooklyn +2.1 161.4 58% 76–88 ✓
Auburn @ LSU +7.1 167.0 74% 80–104 ✓
Troy @ Georgia State +11.7 142.7 86% 53–65 ✓
South Alabama @ App State +1.1 138.5 54% 56–54 ✗
Old Dominion @ UAB +10.1 132.0 82% 65–58 ✗
Pacific @ Portland -12.3 147.6 13% 80–58 ✓
Duquesne @ Richmond +9.0 137.0 79% 72–79 ✓
Oral Roberts @ South Dakota +3.2 158.7 61% 84–86 ✓
Jacksonville @ Stetson +5.4 133.7 69% 86–82 ✗
Canisius @ Fairfield -7.2 138.5 26% 53–66 ✗
Wright State @ Northern Kentucky -10.8 143.4 16% 77–71 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Youngstown State +2.5 149.3 59% 70–77 ✓
Oakland @ Milwaukee +4.0 159.0 64% 87–89 ✓
Robert Morris @ Detroit Mercy +10.6 153.1 83% 61–80 ✓
Cleveland State @ Purdue Fort Wayne -5.8 142.2 30% 67–55 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Tennessee State -8.2 137.0 23% 77–76 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Belmont +22.1 151.0 98% 66–90 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Austin Peay +9.4 145.2 80% 76–69 ✗
Morehead State @ UT Martin -13.7 129.7 11% 79–69 ✓
Lamar @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +2.3 136.9 58% 68–77 ✓
Kansas State @ TCU +8.7 134.9 78% 62–54 ✗
Chattanooga @ UNC Greensboro +5.5 135.3 69% 55–60 ✓
Seton Hall @ Georgetown -3.9 143.0 36% 75–81 ✗
Purdue @ Nebraska -7.7 135.7 24% 75–58 ✓
Oklahoma @ Iowa State -14.1 142.7 10% 66–56 ✓
Arizona @ USC +7.1 144.1 74% 81–72 ✗
Louisville @ North Carolina +1.4 135.8 55% 54–99 ✓
Mississippi State @ Ole Miss +6.0 127.5 71% 66–56 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Southeast Missouri State -6.9 155.9 26% 72–94 ✗
Central Arkansas @ Nicholls +12.1 156.1 86% 68–79 ✓
Pepperdine @ Santa Clara -3.2 141.3 38% 82–86 ✗
Miami (OH) @ Northern Illinois -8.5 133.2 22% 69–64 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.