Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | MER +163 FUR -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FUR +10 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | FUR -3.2 (-6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.9 (-23.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FUR -1.6 (-8.4) | 149.8 (-19.8) | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -2.2 (-7.8) | 146.9 (-16.9) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FUR -1.5 (-8.5) | 151.6 (-21.6) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FUR -2.0 (-8.0) | 149.4 (-19.4) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | MER 69 – 64 FUR |
| Dec 31, 2025 | FUR 74 – 72 MER |
| Feb 13, 2025 | FUR 96 – 72 MER |
| Jan 25, 2025 | FUR 79 – 74 MER |
| Mar 2, 2024 | MER 82 – 75 FUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 16-9 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 10-5 |
| Home | 9-4 | 11-1 |
| Away | 6-6 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 78.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#130) | 8.4 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#136) | 0.81 (#109) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#127) | 1.16 (#100) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#124) | 0.548 (#86) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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