Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | BALL +188 AKR -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +9 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | AKR -3.7 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (+23.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -3.8 (-5.2) | 143.4 (+23.6) | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -2.8 (-6.2) | 145.5 (+21.5) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -3.3 (-5.7) | 144.9 (+22.1) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -4.0 (-5.0) | 144.2 (+22.8) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | AKR 78 – 65 BALL |
| Jan 14, 2026 | AKR 87 – 77 BALL |
| Feb 26, 2025 | AKR 87 – 82 BALL |
| Feb 5, 2025 | AKR 81 – 73 BALL |
| Jan 10, 2024 | AKR 80 – 76 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-13 | 15-8 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 7-4 | 9-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 72.8 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#183) | 5.0 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#209) | 1.06 (#91) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#196) | 1.35 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#184) | 0.548 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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