Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -175 LOU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +45 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -2.1 (+42.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.0 (+17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -2.9 (+42.1) | 136.5 (+16.5) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -1.6 (+43.4) | 134.4 (+18.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -3.8 (+41.2) | 136.8 (+16.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -3.1 (+41.9) | 136.3 (+16.7) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 24, 2026 | UNC 77 – 74 LOU |
| Jan 1, 2025 | LOU 83 – 70 UNC |
| Jan 18, 2024 | UNC 86 – 70 LOU |
| Jan 14, 2023 | UNC 80 – 59 LOU |
| Feb 22, 2022 | UNC 70 – 63 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 13-7 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 8-5 |
| Home | 10-1 | 9-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-4 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 10.6 (#47) | 11.0 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#50) | 2.29 (#35) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.67 (#41) | 2.78 (#38) |
| RPI | 0.595 (#33) | 0.604 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 42.8 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 15.1 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 39.5% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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