Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | NEB +300 PUR -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +17 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | PUR -7.6 (-9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.5 (-2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -6.4 (-10.6) | 135.5 (-2.5) | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -6.8 (-10.2) | 136.0 (-3.0) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -6.0 (-11.0) | 135.7 (-2.7) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -6.3 (-10.7) | 134.1 (-1.1) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | PUR 74 – 58 NEB |
| Feb 11, 2026 | PUR 80 – 77 NEB |
| Jan 12, 2025 | PUR 104 – 68 NEB |
| Jan 10, 2024 | NEB 88 – 72 PUR |
| Jan 14, 2023 | PUR 73 – 55 NEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEB | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-20 | 18-10 |
| Conference | 3-16 | 13-6 |
| Home | 6-9 | 11-1 |
| Away | 1-10 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 66.7 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#125) | 13.0 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#187) | 2.54 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#176) | 3.56 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#218) | 0.595 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEB | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 75.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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