Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | VCU -450 GMU +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +3 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | VCU -12.7 (-15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.4 (+20.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -11.4 (-14.4) | 136.6 (+18.4) | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -9.5 (-12.5) | 136.6 (+18.4) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -11.5 (-14.5) | 141.1 (+13.9) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -11.9 (-14.9) | 138.4 (+16.6) | 86% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | VCU 70 – 65 GMU |
| Jan 10, 2026 | GMU 86 – 80 VCU |
| Mar 16, 2025 | VCU 68 – 63 GMU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | VCU 70 – 54 GMU |
| Jan 10, 2024 | VCU 54 – 50 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-7 | 13-9 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 8-6 |
| Home | 12-2 | 7-3 |
| Away | 5-3 | 3-4 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 11.2 (#36) | 1.0 (#148) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.33 (#33) | 0.29 (#151) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.84 (#34) | 0.18 (#158) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#29) | 0.508 (#155) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.4% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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