Betting Lines
| Spread | WRST -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | NKU +350 WRST -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WRST +6 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | WRST -11.4 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (+4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WRST -7.0 (+1.0) | 146.2 (+1.8) | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WRST -7.2 (+1.2) | 145.9 (+2.1) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WRST -7.3 (+1.3) | 145.8 (+2.2) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WRST -7.4 (+1.4) | 147.3 (+0.7) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | WRST 103 – 90 NKU |
| Mar 1, 2026 | WRST 92 – 91 NKU |
| Jan 24, 2026 | WRST 88 – 80 NKU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | NKU 80 – 76 WRST |
| Jan 18, 2025 | WRST 78 – 70 NKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NKU | WRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-11 | 18-6 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 16-4 |
| Home | 9-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 82.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#224) | 10.6 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#195) | 0.71 (#115) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#199) | 1.07 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#147) | 0.559 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NKU | WRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 42.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 44.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 14.8% |
Game Analysis
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