Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | IU -250 MSU +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +7 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | IU -9.2 (-16.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.6 (+10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -8.0 (-15.0) | 139.7 (+9.3) | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IU -5.8 (-12.8) | 139.8 (+9.2) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -8.3 (-15.3) | 140.6 (+8.4) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IU -8.4 (-15.4) | 139.1 (+9.9) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | MSU 77 – 64 IU |
| Jan 14, 2026 | MSU 81 – 60 IU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | IU 71 – 67 MSU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | IU 65 – 64 MSU |
| Feb 22, 2023 | MSU 80 – 65 IU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-15 | 15-13 |
| Conference | 7-12 | 9-11 |
| Home | 6-6 | 12-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 12.6 (#31) | 5.9 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.13 (#44) | 1.44 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.10 (#27) | 2.30 (#55) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#78) | 0.501 (#171) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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