Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | ALA -1200 VAN +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +4 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -17.5 (-13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (+6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -16.0 (-12.0) | 155.2 (+4.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -13.4 (-9.4) | 151.9 (+8.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -15.6 (-11.6) | 152.7 (+7.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -16.3 (-12.3) | 155.1 (+4.9) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | VAN 96 – 90 ALA |
| Jan 22, 2025 | ALA 103 – 87 VAN |
| Jan 6, 2024 | ALA 78 – 75 VAN |
| Feb 1, 2023 | ALA 101 – 44 VAN |
| Jan 18, 2023 | ALA 78 – 66 VAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-7 | 9-16 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 3-13 |
| Home | 12-1 | 6-7 |
| Away | 7-3 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.7 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 18.1 (#6) | 3.1 (#122) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.81 (#14) | -0.22 (#190) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.65 (#13) | 0.37 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.638 (#4) | 0.444 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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