Betting Lines
| Spread | UTU -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Under |
| Money | UTU -118 TAR +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +18 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | TAR -4.7 (-13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.6 (-7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -1.4 (-16.6) | 146.1 (-10.1) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -1.4 (-16.6) | 140.7 (-4.7) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -2.9 (-15.1) | 144.8 (-8.8) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -1.2 (-16.8) | 145.9 (-9.9) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UTU 80 – 72 TAR |
| Jan 31, 2026 | UTU 65 – 59 TAR |
| Jan 18, 2026 | UTU 75 – 71 TAR |
| Jan 31, 2025 | TAR 61 – 54 UTU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UTU 58 – 54 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-13 | 10-10 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 5-7 |
| Home | 5-7 | 6-3 |
| Away | 3-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | W3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.2 | 68.1 |
| Massey | -13.0 (#333) | -5.8 (#262) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.69 (#302) | -2.31 (#327) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.58 (#317) | -2.63 (#318) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#274) | 0.438 (#271) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 40.4% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 26.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 5.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.5% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 17.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 29.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 56.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 38.6% |
Game Analysis
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