Betting Lines
| Spread | STET -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | STET -200 JAX +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STET win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STET +16 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | STET -5.6 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.6 (+32.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STET -4.4 (+11.6) | 136.1 (+29.9) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STET -3.6 (+12.4) | 136.2 (+29.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STET -4.3 (+11.7) | 134.7 (+31.3) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STET -4.5 (+11.5) | 135.4 (+30.6) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | JAX 89 – 85 STET |
| Feb 12, 2026 | STET 67 – 62 JAX |
| Feb 27, 2025 | JAX 79 – 72 STET |
| Feb 7, 2025 | JAX 74 – 65 STET |
| Mar 8, 2024 | STET 88 – 87 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STET | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-15 | 11-13 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 5-9 |
| Home | 7-5 | 7-5 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#266) | -9.2 (#296) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#257) | -1.79 (#309) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.18 (#249) | -1.95 (#294) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#239) | 0.391 (#330) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STET | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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