Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | WAKE +100 NCSU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +18 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | NCSU -0.2 (-17.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (-0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -0.9 (-18.9) | 142.1 (-0.1) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -0.1 (-17.9) | 137.4 (+4.6) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -0.3 (-18.3) | 140.4 (+1.6) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -0.5 (-18.5) | 141.2 (+0.8) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | NCSU 96 – 78 WAKE |
| Dec 31, 2025 | NCSU 70 – 57 WAKE |
| Feb 22, 2025 | NCSU 85 – 73 WAKE |
| Jan 4, 2025 | WAKE 77 – 59 NCSU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | WAKE 83 – 79 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-16 | 14-11 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 9-8 |
| Home | 5-6 | 7-4 |
| Away | 1-9 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 4.4 (#109) | 7.1 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#166) | 0.64 (#123) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#155) | 0.83 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#221) | 0.504 (#165) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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