Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 120.5 Under |
| Money | SPU -333 MRST +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +5 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | SPU -8.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 117.5 (-4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -6.8 (-1.8) | 124.4 (-11.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -5.5 (-0.5) | 122.0 (-9.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -6.4 (-1.4) | 125.2 (-12.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -6.8 (-1.8) | 121.6 (-8.6) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SPU 63 – 56 MRST |
| Jan 3, 2026 | SPU 69 – 59 MRST |
| Mar 2, 2025 | SPU 57 – 52 MRST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | MRST 56 – 51 SPU |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SPU 69 – 60 MRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-11 | 12-9 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-3 | 6-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 63.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.5 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#158) | -5.1 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#126) | -0.17 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.74 (#130) | -0.62 (#207) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#89) | 0.502 (#169) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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