Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | USC -225 ARIZ +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +9 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | USC -7.3 (-16.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (+8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -8.4 (-17.4) | 140.4 (+12.6) | 80% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -5.7 (-14.7) | 138.5 (+14.5) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -7.3 (-16.3) | 140.0 (+13.0) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USC -8.0 (-17.0) | 139.5 (+13.5) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2024 | ARIZ 70 – 49 USC |
| Mar 10, 2024 | USC 78 – 65 ARIZ |
| Jan 18, 2024 | ARIZ 82 – 67 USC |
| Mar 3, 2023 | ARIZ 87 – 81 USC |
| Jan 20, 2023 | ARIZ 81 – 66 USC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 17-9 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-2 | 12-4 |
| Away | 7-3 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.1 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 15.7 (#11) | 10.9 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.68 (#16) | 1.40 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.65 (#12) | 1.98 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.629 (#7) | 0.551 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 30.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.0% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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