Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | VILL -300 CONN +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +8 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -6.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (-13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -6.1 (+1.9) | 142.2 (-14.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -4.8 (+3.2) | 137.0 (-9.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -6.2 (+1.8) | 140.3 (-12.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -6.1 (+1.9) | 142.0 (-14.0) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | CONN 73 – 63 VILL |
| Jan 24, 2026 | CONN 75 – 67 VILL |
| Mar 14, 2025 | CONN 73 – 56 VILL |
| Feb 18, 2025 | CONN 66 – 59 VILL |
| Jan 8, 2025 | VILL 68 – 66 CONN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-7 | 15-8 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 11-6 |
| Home | 9-0 | 7-3 |
| Away | 4-4 | 6-3 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 64.6 |
| Massey | 15.0 (#17) | 11.0 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.91 (#11) | 1.93 (#53) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.51 (#16) | 2.62 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.610 (#18) | 0.571 (#59) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.78 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 36.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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