Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | MINN +175 ILL -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MINN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +31 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -6.3 (-24.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (+3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -2.6 (-28.4) | 151.0 (+6.0) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -3.3 (-27.7) | 149.1 (+7.9) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -2.7 (-28.3) | 152.3 (+4.7) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -2.7 (-28.3) | 150.5 (+6.5) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | ILL 77 – 67 MINN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | ILL 95 – 74 MINN |
| Feb 29, 2024 | ILL 105 – 97 MINN |
| Feb 21, 2023 | ILL 78 – 69 MINN |
| Jan 16, 2023 | ILL 78 – 60 MINN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MINN | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-15 | 24-7 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 16-4 |
| Home | 13-4 | 11-2 |
| Away | 0-10 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#44) | 19.7 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.31 (#34) | 2.99 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.25 (#23) | 4.38 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#67) | 0.602 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MINN | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 50.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 40.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 77.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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