Betting Lines
| Spread | KC -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | KC -500 DEN +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KC +11 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | KC -14.2 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.6 (-3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KC -10.7 (+0.3) | 130.9 (-5.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KC -10.5 (+0.5) | 123.5 (+1.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KC -10.9 (+0.1) | 128.0 (-3.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KC -10.6 (+0.4) | 130.6 (-5.6) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | DEN 69 – 61 KC |
| Dec 31, 2025 | DEN 87 – 74 KC |
| Feb 28, 2025 | KC 64 – 56 DEN |
| Jan 31, 2025 | DEN 69 – 68 KC |
| Mar 10, 2024 | DEN 61 – 60 KC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KC | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-13 | 2-19 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 1-13 |
| Home | 8-3 | 2-10 |
| Away | 2-8 | 0-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.6 | 79.8 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#217) | -14.9 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.67 (#299) | -3.76 (#344) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.05 (#301) | -4.65 (#341) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#275) | 0.332 (#349) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KC | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 29.0 | 29.7 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 21.9% | 21.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.7% | 32.1% |
Game Analysis
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