Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
| Money | UCSD +290 UCR -360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +6 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | UCR -9.8 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.4 (+21.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -8.3 (+2.3) | 135.8 (+20.2) | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -8.5 (+2.5) | 137.4 (+18.6) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -8.9 (+2.9) | 136.6 (+19.4) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -7.8 (+1.8) | 135.7 (+20.3) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | UCSD 72 – 66 UCR |
| Jan 11, 2026 | UCSD 69 – 66 UCR |
| Feb 7, 2025 | UCSD 91 – 71 UCR |
| Jan 19, 2025 | UCR 85 – 81 UCSD |
| Feb 23, 2024 | UCSD 77 – 65 UCR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-10 | 14-8 |
| Conference | 0-0 | 8-4 |
| Home | 7-3 | 5-4 |
| Away | 0-7 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 63.6 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#270) | 5.9 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#290) | 0.26 (#155) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.66 (#275) | 0.62 (#138) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#276) | 0.473 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 39.2% |
| REB / G | 27.8 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 5.5 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 23.6% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 17.6% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 13.2% | 14.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 43.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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