Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | PITT +300 FSU -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +7 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | FSU -5.4 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.5 (-0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -4.3 (-2.7) | 147.8 (+3.2) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -3.8 (-3.2) | 143.6 (+7.4) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -3.1 (-3.9) | 146.7 (+4.3) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -4.0 (-3.0) | 148.7 (+2.3) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | FSU 75 – 74 PITT |
| Jan 16, 2025 | FSU 82 – 70 PITT |
| Mar 6, 2024 | PITT 88 – 73 FSU |
| Feb 11, 2023 | PITT 83 – 75 FSU |
| Jan 21, 2023 | FSU 71 – 64 PITT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-12 | 18-7 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 11-4 |
| Home | 7-6 | 12-1 |
| Away | 3-5 | 3-4 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#78) | 15.1 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#98) | 2.77 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#86) | 3.51 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#166) | 0.605 (#23) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 39.8% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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