Betting Lines
| Spread | CAN -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | FAIR +220 CAN -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +13 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | CAN -6.7 (+19.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (-19.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAN -5.5 (+18.5) | 136.4 (-17.4) | 26% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAN -5.2 (+18.2) | 134.4 (-15.4) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAN -4.6 (+17.6) | 136.6 (-17.6) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CAN -4.4 (+17.4) | 137.5 (-18.5) | 28% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 25, 2026 | FAIR 61 – 55 CAN |
| Jan 2, 2026 | CAN 85 – 81 FAIR |
| Jan 18, 2025 | CAN 78 – 67 FAIR |
| Mar 8, 2024 | FAIR 74 – 62 CAN |
| Jan 15, 2024 | FAIR 88 – 63 CAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-17 | 7-6 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-5 |
| Home | 4-8 | 3-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-4 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.8 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -10.6 (#313) | -1.5 (#188) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#292) | 0.62 (#127) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.85 (#283) | 0.55 (#141) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#304) | 0.558 (#74) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.6% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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