Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | NDSU -110 SDST +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +1 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | SDST -1.0 (-0.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (-6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -0.3 (-1.3) | 142.0 (-7.0) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -0.3 (-0.7) | 141.0 (-6.0) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -0.3 (-0.7) | 143.7 (-8.7) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -0.4 (-1.4) | 142.7 (-7.7) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | NDSU 74 – 66 SDST |
| Jan 15, 2026 | NDSU 76 – 65 SDST |
| Feb 20, 2025 | NDSU 77 – 68 SDST |
| Jan 31, 2025 | SDST 72 – 62 NDSU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | SDST 78 – 61 NDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NDSU | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-12 | 16-7 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 9-3 |
| Home | 6-2 | 8-1 |
| Away | 5-7 | 4-2 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#170) | 3.2 (#120) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#224) | 0.32 (#149) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#225) | 0.06 (#166) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#186) | 0.537 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NDSU | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 40.7% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 79.6% | 77.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.1% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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