Betting Lines
| Spread | CLE -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | PFW +180 CLE -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +7 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | CLE -4.8 (+11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (+1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLE -4.7 (+11.7) | 144.8 (-1.8) | 27% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLE -2.7 (+9.7) | 142.8 (+0.2) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLE -4.5 (+11.5) | 143.2 (-0.2) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CLE -4.8 (+11.8) | 145.0 (-2.0) | 28% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | PFW 92 – 86 CLE |
| Jan 4, 2026 | PFW 74 – 71 CLE |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CLE 68 – 57 PFW |
| Jan 31, 2025 | CLE 68 – 58 PFW |
| Feb 8, 2024 | CLE 75 – 72 PFW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-15 | 19-8 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 16-4 |
| Home | 5-6 | 9-2 |
| Away | 3-9 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.7 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -9.1 (#295) | -1.9 (#191) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.73 (#305) | 0.71 (#114) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.09 (#303) | 0.59 (#139) |
| RPI | 0.397 (#324) | 0.583 (#45) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.1% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 39.8% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.1% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 24.7% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 29.2% |
Game Analysis
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