Betting Lines
| Spread | GT -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | MIA +160 GT -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GT +27 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | GT -5.0 (-22.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (+5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GT -3.4 (-23.6) | 140.1 (+6.9) | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GT -3.6 (-23.4) | 142.2 (+4.8) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GT -4.3 (-22.7) | 140.1 (+6.9) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GT -3.6 (-23.4) | 139.6 (+7.4) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | MIA 91 – 81 GT |
| Mar 5, 2025 | GT 89 – 74 MIA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | GT 80 – 76 MIA |
| Jan 5, 2023 | GT 76 – 70 MIA |
| Feb 10, 2022 | MIA 79 – 70 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | GT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-17 | 17-9 |
| Conference | 4-15 | 11-6 |
| Home | 7-8 | 11-3 |
| Away | 1-8 | 4-5 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.4 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#138) | 9.0 (#64) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#160) | 1.48 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#154) | 2.22 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#217) | 0.516 (#135) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | GT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.0% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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