Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | UNCG -250 UTC +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +5 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -5.6 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.0 (-20.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -4.6 (+0.4) | 138.4 (-23.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -4.6 (+0.4) | 138.0 (-23.0) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -5.1 (-0.1) | 140.4 (-25.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -4.7 (+0.3) | 139.6 (-24.6) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UNCG 85 – 80 UTC |
| Jan 1, 2026 | UNCG 77 – 72 UTC |
| Feb 28, 2025 | UTC 75 – 63 UNCG |
| Jan 9, 2025 | UNCG 78 – 75 UTC |
| Feb 10, 2024 | UTC 89 – 61 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-9 | 18-8 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-7 |
| Home | 7-3 | 9-3 |
| Away | 10-3 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 69.8 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#106) | 1.5 (#139) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#99) | 1.06 (#90) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.10 (#106) | 1.05 (#110) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#70) | 0.559 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 16.3% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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