Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | APP -150 USA +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +2 | 110 | Lost |
| Massey | APP -1.8 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.4 (-28.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -2.5 (-4.5) | 135.5 (-25.5) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -1.5 (-3.5) | 135.4 (-25.4) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -1.8 (-3.8) | 134.9 (-24.9) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APP -1.9 (-3.9) | 135.4 (-25.4) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | APP 65 – 57 USA |
| Jan 5, 2024 | APP 91 – 84 USA |
| Mar 2, 2023 | USA 68 – 61 APP |
| Feb 11, 2023 | USA 74 – 57 APP |
| Feb 19, 2022 | APP 69 – 51 USA |
Game Analysis
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