Betting Lines
| Spread | LAS -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | JOES +125 LAS -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +9 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | LAS -1.8 (+10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.3 (+19.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAS -1.4 (+10.4) | 150.3 (+22.7) | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAS -0.7 (+9.7) | 145.6 (+27.4) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAS -0.9 (+9.9) | 149.1 (+23.9) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LAS -1.8 (+10.8) | 150.6 (+22.4) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | JOES 88 – 76 LAS |
| Jan 31, 2026 | JOES 67 – 58 LAS |
| Mar 13, 2025 | JOES 75 – 70 LAS |
| Mar 8, 2025 | LAS 81 – 74 JOES |
| Feb 13, 2025 | JOES 75 – 63 LAS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-15 | 9-16 |
| Conference | 3-9 | 6-11 |
| Home | 3-3 | 6-3 |
| Away | 1-9 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.6 | 74.0 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#260) | -1.4 (#186) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.79 (#310) | 0.01 (#173) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.06 (#302) | -0.04 (#171) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#278) | 0.500 (#173) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.2% | 15.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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