Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Under |
| Money | BUF -120 TOL +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +10 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | BUF -2.6 (-12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.2 (-12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -3.5 (-13.5) | 157.7 (-7.7) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -2.9 (-12.9) | 155.0 (-5.0) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -2.8 (-12.8) | 157.1 (-7.1) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -3.3 (-13.3) | 158.0 (-8.0) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | TOL 99 – 78 BUF |
| Mar 1, 2025 | BUF 87 – 74 TOL |
| Feb 5, 2025 | TOL 87 – 74 BUF |
| Mar 2, 2024 | TOL 85 – 79 BUF |
| Jan 17, 2024 | TOL 77 – 66 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-9 | 21-9 |
| Conference | 12-5 | 15-4 |
| Home | 8-3 | 12-1 |
| Away | 5-3 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 81.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 8.2 (#71) | 8.0 (#75) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#164) | 1.30 (#77) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#140) | 1.71 (#78) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#161) | 0.567 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.1 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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