The juice of the carrot, the smile of the parrot / A little drop of claret - anything that rocks "Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 3" - Ian Dury & the Blockheads
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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33–18 on winners spread MAE 9.8 51 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Manhattan @ Siena +9.9 127.1 82% 56–64 ✓
Rhode Island @ Duquesne -1.8 134.3 43% 75–86 ✗
Minnesota @ Nebraska -3.6 146.3 37% 74–78 ✗
Missouri State @ Evansville -7.8 140.5 24% 63–72 ✗
Drake @ Bradley -7.2 140.1 26% 61–67 ✗
Nicholls @ LSU New Orleans -3.9 150.7 36% 105–101 ✓
Tennessee State @ Eastern Kentucky +15.5 152.8 92% 84–89 ✓
Georgia State @ South Alabama -1.1 153.2 46% 82–73 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Old Dominion +9.7 133.6 81% 60–73 ✓
Furman @ Wofford -2.2 142.1 42% 73–74 ✗
UC San Diego @ UC Irvine +13.7 137.7 89% 64–75 ✓
Baylor @ Kansas -6.8 145.3 27% 58–71 ✗
USC @ Utah -6.5 138.1 28% 61–71 ✗
Rider @ Saint Peter's +11.4 130.0 85% 78–65 ✗
Coppin State @ Delaware State -8.1 161.6 23% 81–68 ✓
North Carolina Central @ North Carolina A&T +3.3 146.0 62% 53–55 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Utah Valley +2.7 144.4 60% 64–73 ✓
New Mexico State @ Tarleton State -4.7 130.1 33% 55–64 ✗
Houston Christian @ McNeese -0.9 158.5 47% 58–85 ✗
Kansas City @ South Dakota State +9.7 132.6 81% 77–89 ✓
Jackson State @ Mississippi Valley State -23.9 137.7 1% 68–54 ✓
Washington State @ Arizona State +2.7 148.8 60% 74–77 ✓
Murray State @ Tennessee Tech -10.1 140.2 18% 61–71 ✗
Grand Canyon @ Seattle U -5.6 130.0 31% 81–71 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Gonzaga +22.7 159.0 98% 69–86 ✓
Saint Mary's @ BYU +8.0 127.0 77% 51–65 ✓
San Francisco @ Pacific -0.8 135.5 47% 69–76 ✗
UCLA @ Colorado +6.4 138.3 72% 61–70 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Riverside -2.4 133.4 41% 52–68 ✗
Long Beach State @ Hawai'i +10.9 154.9 84% 76–79 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Cal State Bakersfield +12.4 139.6 87% 90–87 ✗
Villanova @ Butler -10.8 131.6 16% 61–73 ✗
UMass Lowell @ New Hampshire +1.1 138.5 54% 72–64 ✗
Memphis @ Cincinnati -3.8 138.0 37% 80–74 ✓
Florida A&M @ South Carolina State -10.0 133.5 18% 63–58 ✓
Michigan State @ Maryland +6.7 135.0 73% 55–73 ✓
UAlbany @ Hartford +1.9 130.0 57% 77–83 ✓
Boston University @ Army +6.7 139.7 73% 55–57 ✓
Charlotte @ UTEP +7.4 125.7 75% 62–77 ✓
Florida International @ Western Kentucky +16.5 151.3 93% 58–91 ✓
Montana State @ Idaho -11.0 139.8 16% 71–61 ✓
Iowa @ Ohio State +0.9 163.5 53% 73–57 ✗
South Florida @ Houston +20.5 131.0 97% 52–98 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Navy +6.1 138.1 71% 58–66 ✓
Bucknell @ American University +3.4 143.2 62% 68–81 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Marist +1.8 128.1 57% 67–76 ✓
Pittsburgh @ NC State +4.1 145.3 65% 62–65 ✓
North Dakota State @ South Dakota +2.4 136.5 59% 89–77 ✗
Coppin State @ Delaware State -8.1 161.6 23% 94–74 ✓
Western Illinois @ Oral Roberts +10.5 163.4 83% 59–95 ✓
Lafayette @ Lehigh -4.8 155.3 33% 71–70 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.