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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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73–37 on winners spread MAE 9.9 110 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Purdue @ Penn State +0.7 140.6 54% 73–52 ✗
Drake @ Bradley -5.7 138.5 32% 80–71 ✓
Missouri State @ Evansville -7.8 139.8 24% 90–81 ✓
Indiana State @ Valparaiso -3.4 134.0 36% 58–43 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Sacred Heart +1.9 158.9 64% 64–70 ✓
Richmond @ Saint Louis +3.4 142.4 70% 67–72 ✓
Arkansas State @ UT Arlington +2.4 141.6 62% 71–73 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Troy -3.6 132.8 33% 75–59 ✓
North Texas @ Marshall +3.7 142.8 63% 77–65 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ Old Dominion +11.3 139.8 83% 61–67 ✓
UAB @ UTSA -3.3 146.2 36% 64–57 ✓
Bowling Green @ Akron +5.5 154.0 72% 83–71 ✗
UC San Diego @ UC Irvine +10.0 141.4 84% 55–80 ✓
Southern Utah @ Northern Arizona -8.8 147.3 21% 92–62 ✓
Montana State @ Idaho -10.8 141.1 18% 69–74 ✗
Louisiana @ Little Rock +0.9 146.4 58% 66–61 ✗
Rice @ Louisiana Tech +10.1 144.3 82% 57–101 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Southern Miss +0.1 141.4 47% 69–60 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Utah Valley +1.8 141.9 64% 74–78 ✓
New Mexico State @ Tarleton State +0.1 135.2 45% 78–51 ✗
Kansas City @ South Dakota State +8.3 137.8 75% 49–67 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Loyola Chicago +17.8 128.7 90% 52–60 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Illinois State +1.5 142.4 57% 70–56 ✗
Nevada @ Utah State +7.7 142.4 77% 72–75 ✓
Georgia State @ South Alabama +0.5 148.7 45% 84–81 ✗
Grand Canyon @ Seattle U -6.3 135.4 25% 57–63 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ Cal State Bakersfield +9.5 139.0 83% 58–84 ✓
Fresno State @ UNLV +3.9 133.4 64% 67–68 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Riverside -0.6 137.4 44% 72–68 ✓
Long Beach State @ Hawai'i +9.1 150.3 83% 76–78 ✓
Michigan @ Indiana -3.7 141.2 38% 73–57 ✓
Texas @ Texas Tech +3.0 140.0 70% 59–68 ✓
Tennessee @ Auburn -2.1 147.6 42% 72–77 ✗
Navy @ Loyola Maryland -0.3 139.7 49% 73–67 ✓
Georgetown @ DePaul -0.1 135.5 47% 68–60 ✓
Syracuse @ Georgia Tech +4.6 146.3 74% 77–84 ✓
Liberty @ Bellarmine -1.2 133.8 33% 94–78 ✓
Stony Brook @ UMass Lowell -0.3 136.2 51% 62–64 ✗
South Carolina @ Georgia +6.5 160.5 72% 91–70 ✗
Mercer @ Western Carolina -5.0 153.4 31% 61–85 ✗
Central Michigan @ Ball State +10.2 150.0 86% 91–97 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Eastern Michigan +3.2 140.6 66% 57–91 ✓
Montana @ Idaho State -2.6 131.5 34% 59–58 ✓
Illinois @ Wisconsin -0.3 138.1 46% 74–69 ✓
LSU @ Arkansas +5.8 156.0 77% 75–83 ✓
North Florida @ Stetson +3.9 150.2 67% 68–85 ✓
Binghamton @ Hartford +5.3 132.5 65% 60–77 ✓
Presbyterian @ Hampton +2.1 135.7 62% 65–67 ✓
American University @ Bucknell +4.5 144.3 67% 78–71 ✗
Florida A&M @ South Carolina State -7.7 130.6 22% 57–63 ✗
Washington @ Arizona +14.7 143.3 88% 74–75 ✓
VCU @ Davidson +0.8 134.3 55% 57–65 ✓
Miami @ Clemson +13.2 130.9 87% 58–66 ✓
Notre Dame @ Boston College -4.2 150.4 36% 90–94 ✗
Rice @ Louisiana Tech +11.5 144.2 86% 58–79 ✓
North Texas @ Marshall +4.4 142.4 63% 72–73 ✓
Buffalo @ Ohio +2.1 157.9 58% 86–66 ✗
Portland State @ Northern Colorado +0.2 133.4 45% 73–65 ✗
Weber State @ Sacramento State -8.8 150.1 20% 72–70 ✓
Marquette @ UConn +6.3 135.4 76% 62–80 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma +4.7 140.7 68% 94–90 ✗
Boston University @ Army +8.4 144.6 76% 75–63 ✗
Lipscomb @ North Alabama -3.6 138.8 35% 66–73 ✗
App State @ Georgia Southern +0.4 138.0 50% 57–65 ✓
Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt -3.1 138.1 43% 70–75 ✗
Kansas State @ West Virginia +16.4 145.3 89% 43–65 ✓
Florida State @ North Carolina +1.7 153.5 60% 70–78 ✓
Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech +10.2 136.9 84% 46–84 ✓
Boise State @ San Diego State +6.1 135.4 78% 58–62 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ High Point +4.0 135.2 65% 60–65 ✓
Lehigh @ Lafayette +8.8 152.0 79% 69–75 ✓
Oregon @ California -7.3 131.4 29% 74–63 ✓
Air Force @ Colorado State +18.7 137.0 90% 49–72 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Northwestern State +3.6 149.7 69% 61–79 ✓
Florida @ Kentucky +0.5 142.2 52% 71–67 ✗
Belmont @ Morehead State -1.9 139.2 42% 82–89 ✗
UAB @ UTSA -2.1 144.2 41% 79–96 ✗
Pepperdine @ San Diego -3.6 148.3 37% 90–84 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ East Tennessee State +1.5 133.1 58% 85–74 ✗
La Salle @ George Mason +5.7 142.9 73% 54–89 ✓
North Dakota State @ South Dakota +1.9 139.3 61% 71–80 ✓
Kent State @ Miami (OH) -0.6 146.7 48% 64–51 ✓
Creighton @ Xavier -1.1 146.7 50% 69–77 ✗
NJIT @ UAlbany +2.4 135.9 64% 66–76 ✓
Western Illinois @ Oral Roberts +9.4 159.8 82% 81–85 ✓
UT Martin @ Eastern Illinois +7.8 142.4 74% 73–68 ✗
Austin Peay @ Jacksonville State +5.2 144.9 73% 67–75 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Troy -3.6 132.6 34% 76–71 ✓
Arkansas State @ UT Arlington +2.6 140.2 63% 56–64 ✓
Louisiana @ Little Rock +0.8 145.3 57% 59–69 ✓
UL Monroe @ Texas State +9.6 126.2 82% 57–61 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Southern Miss +0.6 137.3 51% 73–66 ✗
Western Michigan @ Toledo +16.6 146.0 88% 44–91 ✓
UC Davis @ Cal Poly -6.1 137.7 25% 68–66 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Lamar -8.7 148.7 17% 83–88 ✗
Alcorn State @ Southern +5.8 136.0 76% 75–89 ✓
Texas Southern @ Alabama State -8.9 138.1 18% 86–76 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Alabama A&M -6.3 134.4 21% 55–54 ✓
Alabama @ Mississippi State -3.6 144.9 40% 64–59 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Loyola Chicago +17.7 128.1 90% 58–65 ✓
Elon @ UNC Wilmington +2.9 139.9 54% 80–77 ✗
Northern Iowa @ Illinois State +1.4 141.4 60% 94–87 ✗
Indiana State @ Valparaiso -3.7 132.8 30% 58–70 ✗
Louisville @ Duke +5.1 140.7 69% 80–73 ✗
Omaha @ Denver -1.3 147.5 40% 80–76 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ SIU Edwardsville -1.0 140.9 46% 69–63 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Central Arkansas -16.2 146.4 14% 82–84 ✗
Charlotte @ UTEP +5.6 130.0 70% 47–70 ✓
TCU @ Iowa State -3.3 138.5 39% 76–72 ✓
Oregon State @ Stanford +7.3 136.7 76% 73–62 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.