I had 'em all out there steppin' and fetchin' like their heads were on fire and their asses was catchin'. "The Ballad of Uneasy Rider" - Charlie Daniels
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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77–36 on winners spread MAE 8.7 113 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
North Florida @ Jacksonville -0.6 145.1 48% 50–62 ✗
Saint Peter's @ Mount St. Mary's +2.0 130.1 57% 70–65 ✗
Marist @ Manhattan -7.5 130.3 25% 57–50 ✓
Iona @ Rider +0.2 147.0 51% 75–78 ✓
Niagara @ Canisius +1.8 150.2 56% 59–69 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Dartmouth -5.5 131.4 31% 82–69 ✓
Toledo @ Bowling Green -3.7 159.6 37% 68–76 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Green Bay +1.4 141.1 55% 85–59 ✗
Yale @ Cornell +2.0 155.5 57% 62–65 ✓
Princeton @ Harvard -7.6 142.4 25% 66–53 ✓
Brown @ Columbia +5.9 147.1 71% 66–64 ✗
Youngstown State @ Milwaukee -4.6 159.5 34% 84–80 ✓
Duquesne @ Fordham -4.0 140.9 36% 67–79 ✗
Fairfield @ Quinnipiac +2.3 155.0 58% 85–81 ✗
Nevada @ San José State -11.2 141.3 15% 84–63 ✓
Houston @ Baylor -4.0 137.9 36% 82–76 ✓
Notre Dame @ Syracuse +7.8 131.7 76% 85–88 ✓
Hampton @ Northeastern +13.0 148.9 88% 62–70 ✓
Charleston @ Towson +1.2 140.4 54% 72–56 ✗
Indiana @ Penn State +5.4 150.7 69% 74–83 ✓
Missouri @ Arkansas +4.4 149.5 66% 73–88 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Florida +19.7 156.0 96% 64–77 ✓
William & Mary @ Stony Brook +10.1 144.6 82% 62–75 ✓
Western Carolina @ VMI -15.5 151.4 8% 84–51 ✓
Chattanooga @ The Citadel -3.4 142.4 38% 62–71 ✗
UMBC @ New Hampshire +9.8 165.7 81% 86–68 ✗
UAlbany @ UMass Lowell +10.4 161.0 83% 95–104 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Eastern Kentucky +14.9 153.7 91% 82–95 ✓
Washington @ Arizona +17.8 172.4 95% 75–91 ✓
West Virginia @ Iowa State +21.5 142.4 97% 64–71 ✓
Duke @ Wake Forest -0.2 151.7 49% 79–83 ✗
BYU @ Kansas State -6.4 147.1 28% 74–84 ✗
Boston College @ NC State +4.2 152.2 65% 70–81 ✓
Lehigh @ Lafayette +0.3 139.2 51% 71–63 ✗
East Carolina @ Rice +0.9 137.9 53% 52–70 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Winthrop +10.8 145.2 84% 74–83 ✓
Longwood @ Radford +0.7 140.4 52% 82–88 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ UNC Asheville +6.6 151.8 73% 78–77 ✗
High Point @ Charleston Southern -10.5 151.6 17% 74–59 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Monmouth +14.4 145.8 90% 67–83 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Le Moyne +6.4 159.0 72% 68–58 ✗
Central Connecticut @ Sacred Heart +0.0 144.4 50% 68–67 ✗
Saint Francis @ Stonehill +2.9 135.0 60% 63–72 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Ball State +9.7 142.1 81% 58–56 ✗
Wofford @ Furman +7.5 156.0 75% 67–82 ✓
Texas State @ Georgia State +5.5 137.3 69% 68–59 ✗
NJIT @ Maine +10.7 128.6 83% 58–68 ✓
Oral Roberts @ South Dakota -1.6 158.8 44% 76–77 ✗
North Dakota @ North Dakota State +3.4 147.2 62% 68–73 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Stetson +5.1 165.9 68% 72–84 ✓
Iowa @ Illinois +10.3 172.5 83% 85–95 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Massachusetts +3.3 148.9 62% 75–67 ✗
Buffalo @ Western Michigan +8.4 144.5 78% 72–91 ✓
Cincinnati @ TCU +4.0 152.2 64% 57–75 ✓
George Washington @ Saint Louis +2.8 168.6 60% 91–96 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Samford +13.7 152.7 89% 71–87 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ South Dakota State +2.9 140.0 60% 72–77 ✓
Utah Tech @ UT Arlington +10.4 150.0 83% 78–89 ✓
South Carolina @ Ole Miss +1.8 137.2 56% 72–59 ✗
Central Michigan @ Miami (OH) +3.7 133.4 63% 60–88 ✓
Troy @ UL Monroe -6.7 145.0 27% 84–78 ✓
South Alabama @ Arkansas State +8.6 158.0 78% 78–95 ✓
North Carolina @ Virginia -3.9 129.6 36% 54–44 ✓
Alabama @ Kentucky -3.8 184.2 37% 95–117 ✗
Texas Tech @ UCF -1.3 139.7 45% 61–75 ✗
Morgan State @ Howard +11.7 158.7 86% 72–78 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ North Carolina Central +12.2 135.0 87% 55–88 ✓
Delaware State @ South Carolina State +2.8 144.3 60% 62–69 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Miami +9.6 150.3 81% 80–76 ✗
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State -4.1 140.1 36% 84–82 ✓
UTSA @ North Texas +16.9 143.1 94% 64–62 ✗
Valparaiso @ Murray State +12.3 138.6 87% 68–80 ✓
Alabama State @ Florida A&M -3.2 134.4 39% 65–73 ✗
Air Force @ New Mexico +22.6 147.6 98% 78–77 ✗
Norfolk State @ Coppin State -10.6 128.1 17% 68–66 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Tennessee Tech +0.5 132.5 52% 67–75 ✓
Jackson State @ Alcorn State +1.4 148.9 55% 73–87 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Nicholls +9.0 141.5 79% 70–85 ✓
North Alabama @ Bellarmine -2.4 144.4 41% 70–82 ✗
Alabama A&M @ Bethune-Cookman +6.2 149.4 71% 61–63 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Utah Valley +3.5 136.9 63% 62–71 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Abilene Christian -10.6 147.7 17% 73–79 ✗
UC Irvine @ UC San Diego +0.5 140.8 52% 88–92 ✓
Idaho @ Northern Arizona +2.4 138.5 59% 86–76 ✗
George Mason @ Loyola Chicago +1.7 134.7 56% 59–80 ✓
Ohio @ Northern Illinois -5.0 155.9 33% 80–59 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Mercer -2.3 136.1 42% 72–86 ✗
Southern Indiana @ Western Illinois +8.0 131.1 77% 76–82 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Tennessee State +2.9 138.8 60% 71–76 ✓
Little Rock @ Lindenwood -10.2 147.9 18% 82–73 ✓
New Orleans @ SE Louisiana +10.4 147.7 83% 67–77 ✓
Northwestern State @ Houston Christian -0.5 148.9 48% 86–73 ✓
UT Martin @ Southeast Missouri State -10.0 155.4 18% 82–72 ✓
Oregon State @ Stanford +9.6 147.3 81% 85–73 ✗
James Madison @ Georgia Southern -15.3 158.0 8% 80–74 ✓
Incarnate Word @ McNeese +24.6 146.7 99% 71–87 ✓
California Baptist @ Tarleton State +4.8 132.0 67% 65–82 ✓
Lipscomb @ Austin Peay +0.2 149.7 51% 90–85 ✗
Virginia Tech @ Pittsburgh +2.9 142.8 60% 64–79 ✓
Texas @ Kansas +5.5 144.8 69% 67–86 ✓
Auburn @ Georgia -9.1 148.9 21% 97–76 ✓
Drake @ Northern Iowa -4.3 147.4 35% 77–91 ✗
Missouri State @ Belmont +4.9 153.1 67% 78–93 ✓
Georgetown @ DePaul -3.8 150.5 36% 77–76 ✓
Davidson @ Richmond +6.3 132.2 72% 63–66 ✓
Yale @ Columbia -4.9 146.0 33% 84–76 ✓
Princeton @ Dartmouth -16.1 129.6 7% 68–56 ✓
App State @ Marshall -7.9 145.1 24% 65–58 ✓
Brown @ Cornell +13.5 156.6 89% 78–74 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Seattle U +18.4 148.5 95% 56–84 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Florida International -2.9 138.3 40% 77–75 ✓
Grambling @ Southern +8.3 132.6 78% 63–57 ✗
Prairie View A&M @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +1.5 162.3 55% 59–72 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.