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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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42–24 on winners spread MAE 9.8 66 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Oregon @ California -2.1 151.3 43% 64–69 ✗
Texas Southern @ Mississippi Valley State -14.7 127.2 9% 73–52 ✓
Elon @ Hofstra +14.3 145.6 90% 64–87 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Lamar +2.2 147.6 58% 75–61 ✗
Pennsylvania @ Harvard +3.1 144.3 61% 70–74 ✓
Louisiana @ Southern Miss -3.5 141.3 38% 71–82 ✗
Coastal Carolina @ Old Dominion +6.3 151.8 72% 59–75 ✓
Bryant @ Vermont +9.1 141.7 79% 48–65 ✓
Queens University @ Florida Gulf Coast +4.2 151.6 65% 81–90 ✓
Boise State @ Wyoming -9.3 144.9 20% 92–72 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee -6.3 143.6 28% 72–74 ✗
Florida State @ Clemson +10.0 152.1 82% 63–74 ✓
Villanova @ UConn +9.3 137.0 80% 54–78 ✓
Texas A&M @ Tennessee +11.4 141.8 85% 51–86 ✓
Washington State @ Arizona State -6.8 136.6 27% 61–73 ✗
Colorado State @ UNLV -2.3 140.8 42% 60–66 ✗
Charlotte @ Tulsa -2.8 137.4 40% 67–69 ✗
UIC @ Indiana State +16.7 149.7 94% 73–88 ✓
Illinois State @ Bradley +12.4 134.1 87% 45–48 ✓
Omaha @ Kansas City +2.9 146.1 60% 58–63 ✓
Sacramento State @ Montana State +9.1 133.7 80% 66–63 ✗
Weber State @ Idaho State -4.3 136.0 35% 62–80 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Northern Colorado +0.0 169.7 50% 85–76 ✗
Butler @ Seton Hall +2.5 147.9 59% 64–76 ✓
Mississippi State @ LSU -1.1 144.3 46% 87–67 ✓
Utah @ Colorado +3.3 157.0 62% 65–89 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ New Mexico State -11.1 133.0 16% 67–58 ✓
Sam Houston @ UTEP +1.9 140.4 57% 65–54 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ Cal State Fullerton +2.7 142.8 60% 65–60 ✗
Portland State @ Montana +7.9 145.8 76% 73–82 ✓
San Diego @ Saint Mary's +22.1 135.7 98% 62–88 ✓
San Diego State @ Fresno State -12.8 139.8 12% 73–41 ✓
USC @ UCLA +3.8 133.6 63% 62–56 ✗
Santa Clara @ Gonzaga +13.8 154.5 89% 81–94 ✓
Pepperdine @ San Francisco +15.7 145.8 92% 68–92 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Pacific -10.6 143.4 17% 86–63 ✓
UC Riverside @ Cal Poly -5.5 130.5 31% 84–78 ✓
UC Davis @ Cal State Bakersfield -1.2 133.4 46% 56–75 ✗
Long Beach State @ Hawai'i +2.9 152.8 60% 65–73 ✓
Creighton @ St. John's -2.6 152.4 41% 66–80 ✗
SMU @ South Florida -3.3 141.7 38% 68–79 ✗
Maryland @ Rutgers +0.2 121.7 51% 63–46 ✗
Rhode Island @ La Salle +2.1 154.9 58% 61–84 ✓
Long Island University @ Wagner +8.5 130.3 78% 57–72 ✓
Purdue @ Michigan -14.5 157.3 9% 84–76 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Memphis -2.8 165.0 40% 74–78 ✗
Southern Illinois @ Evansville -3.5 142.0 37% 65–53 ✓
Holy Cross @ Navy +7.6 136.3 76% 66–76 ✓
American University @ Colgate +11.1 132.4 84% 66–64 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ Boston University +8.5 128.5 78% 79–82 ✓
Army @ Bucknell +5.8 123.7 70% 41–54 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Rider +1.2 155.1 54% 78–88 ✓
Iona @ Mount St. Mary's +0.7 146.4 52% 65–72 ✓
Siena @ Fairfield +19.8 140.5 96% 64–88 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Northern Kentucky +20.7 142.5 97% 64–80 ✓
Cleveland State @ Robert Morris -1.9 152.0 43% 73–71 ✓
Marist @ Saint Peter's +2.6 114.1 59% 60–69 ✓
Youngstown State @ Green Bay -2.7 140.8 40% 71–59 ✓
Wright State @ Oakland +6.8 168.0 73% 96–75 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Milwaukee -2.4 160.1 42% 88–96 ✗
Temple @ Wichita State +7.8 145.1 76% 72–66 ✗
UAB @ Tulane +4.4 169.9 66% 78–67 ✗
Ohio State @ Michigan State +8.8 138.2 79% 60–57 ✗
Saint Joseph's @ VCU +4.8 139.3 67% 69–73 ✓
Xavier @ Marquette +9.3 151.7 80% 64–88 ✓
Minnesota @ Nebraska +5.8 148.2 70% 55–73 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.