Gaga googa ga ga googa ga ga goo ga ga "Night of the Thumpasaurus People" - Parliament
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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64–43 on winners spread MAE 8.5 107 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Presbyterian @ Gardner-Webb +9.4 127.5 80% 64–91 ✓
North Alabama @ Florida Gulf Coast -0.2 140.1 49% 60–86 ✗
Akron @ Kent State +5.2 152.4 68% 72–61 ✗
Maryland @ Penn State +3.0 148.3 61% 50–55 ✓
George Mason @ Dayton +7.7 133.7 76% 65–74 ✓
Youngstown State @ Robert Morris +2.2 152.0 58% 84–78 ✗
Cleveland State @ Oakland -2.1 141.8 43% 80–72 ✓
Jacksonville @ Bellarmine +9.3 139.3 80% 56–71 ✓
UL Monroe @ UT Arlington +8.5 137.5 78% 56–63 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Troy +2.6 127.2 59% 56–68 ✓
Louisiana @ Arkansas State -4.1 148.5 35% 87–95 ✗
Coastal Carolina @ South Alabama -2.1 150.7 43% 65–71 ✗
Charlotte @ Middle Tennessee -5.8 114.7 30% 65–66 ✗
Marshall @ Old Dominion -6.3 140.3 28% 81–82 ✗
UTSA @ Florida International +3.2 163.6 61% 87–80 ✗
UC Davis @ Cal State Northridge -1.8 161.1 44% 77–80 ✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Irvine +5.2 125.3 68% 53–70 ✓
UTEP @ UAB +10.4 136.4 83% 51–63 ✓
Lipscomb @ Stetson +1.9 139.0 57% 68–73 ✓
Western Illinois @ Omaha +1.9 154.5 57% 85–77 ✗
Wright State @ UIC -13.8 140.1 10% 72–47 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ North Texas +7.0 128.8 74% 68–63 ✗
South Dakota @ South Dakota State +5.5 154.9 69% 64–56 ✗
Oral Roberts @ North Dakota State +4.1 143.2 65% 54–61 ✓
Monmouth @ Manhattan -7.6 147.0 24% 70–65 ✓
Boise State @ Nevada -6.1 145.0 29% 72–74 ✗
California Baptist @ New Mexico State +2.8 142.5 60% 85–75 ✗
Seattle U @ Utah Tech -2.5 141.3 41% 76–77 ✗
Cal Poly @ Hawai'i +18.2 131.3 95% 68–84 ✓
Iowa State @ Oklahoma +19.6 140.0 96% 72–79 ✓
Alabama @ Missouri -2.5 153.2 41% 65–68 ✗
Virginia Tech @ Miami -8.0 133.2 23% 80–76 ✓
DePaul @ Butler +3.3 130.1 62% 58–68 ✓
Seton Hall @ UConn +3.4 136.8 62% 80–73 ✗
NC State @ Boston College -2.0 155.2 43% 81–65 ✓
Toledo @ Ball State -9.8 152.1 19% 67–81 ✗
La Salle @ Fordham -6.9 117.6 27% 68–76 ✗
UMass Lowell @ New Hampshire -0.5 137.4 48% 63–74 ✗
Towson @ Charleston +4.9 139.4 67% 88–90 ✓
Western Carolina @ The Citadel +2.3 176.2 58% 63–74 ✓
Belmont @ SIU Edwardsville -13.2 151.4 12% 94–62 ✓
Kansas @ West Virginia +2.0 143.2 57% 79–91 ✓
Drake @ Valparaiso -17.7 138.7 5% 80–77 ✓
Delaware State @ Morgan State +22.5 169.2 98% 69–74 ✓
Western Michigan @ Central Michigan +3.3 141.0 62% 67–65 ✗
St. Bonaventure @ Saint Louis +2.0 142.2 57% 59–70 ✓
St. John's @ Providence +2.1 153.9 58% 92–81 ✗
Evansville @ Loyola Chicago +22.0 123.0 98% 55–68 ✓
East Carolina @ Memphis +10.4 133.5 83% 59–66 ✓
Syracuse @ Clemson +0.4 134.0 51% 61–78 ✓
North Dakota @ Denver -3.8 146.8 37% 81–85 ✗
Austin Peay @ Morehead State +5.7 130.7 70% 74–75 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ North Texas +7.0 128.8 74% 55–57 ✓
UTSA @ Florida International +3.2 163.6 61% 90–47 ✗
Miami (OH) @ Buffalo +9.4 151.1 80% 64–88 ✓
Drexel @ Hofstra +1.8 136.4 57% 73–71 ✗
Montana State @ Weber State +10.2 149.5 82% 74–82 ✓
Wisconsin @ Illinois +6.1 139.7 71% 60–75 ✓
Texas @ Oklahoma State -1.7 149.1 44% 67–75 ✗
Missouri State @ Illinois State -6.7 149.1 27% 74–67 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Milwaukee +2.5 142.1 59% 79–65 ✗
McNeese @ Central Arkansas +10.1 157.7 82% 80–70 ✗
Southern Miss @ Rice +8.0 139.9 77% 68–76 ✓
Montana @ Portland State -1.9 127.3 43% 56–61 ✗
Idaho @ Eastern Washington +21.6 147.7 98% 64–90 ✓
Mississippi State @ South Carolina +1.2 146.2 54% 75–59 ✗
Texas Tech @ Kansas State -16.6 131.2 7% 73–62 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Virginia +12.4 131.4 87% 66–73 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Bradley +8.5 133.9 78% 66–74 ✓
Washington @ Oregon +15.8 148.8 92% 74–86 ✓
Air Force @ UNLV +13.0 131.3 88% 58–68 ✓
Ole Miss @ Auburn +2.7 138.0 60% 86–84 ✗
Murray State @ Eastern Kentucky +4.5 153.9 66% 76–64 ✗
Chattanooga @ East Tennessee State +6.9 134.9 73% 67–65 ✗
Northwestern @ Purdue +8.6 137.0 78% 70–75 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi -1.3 134.2 45% 58–53 ✓
Jackson State @ Alcorn State -3.6 138.9 37% 74–66 ✓
Creighton @ Marquette -4.8 149.2 33% 71–68 ✓
Lipscomb @ Stetson +1.9 139.0 57% 69–61 ✗
Youngstown State @ Robert Morris +2.2 152.0 58% 70–66 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Green Bay +3.6 149.1 63% 72–79 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Detroit Mercy +8.7 157.0 79% 56–83 ✓
Cleveland State @ Oakland -2.1 141.8 43% 80–78 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ UT Martin -2.9 142.9 40% 64–66 ✗
Jacksonville State @ Southeast Missouri State -3.4 142.5 38% 66–54 ✓
Tennessee State @ Eastern Illinois +2.7 132.6 60% 72–86 ✓
Jacksonville @ Bellarmine +9.3 139.3 80% 44–63 ✓
UL Monroe @ UT Arlington +8.5 137.5 78% 52–58 ✓
Little Rock @ Texas State +3.0 127.7 61% 67–77 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Troy +2.6 127.2 59% 79–64 ✗
Coastal Carolina @ South Alabama -2.1 150.7 43% 66–70 ✗
Louisiana @ Arkansas State -4.1 148.5 35% 77–83 ✗
UTEP @ UAB +10.4 136.4 83% 60–75 ✓
Charlotte @ Middle Tennessee -5.8 114.7 30% 60–73 ✗
UC Davis @ Cal State Northridge -1.8 161.1 44% 75–63 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Lamar -19.1 128.7 4% 77–62 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Alabama State +5.1 134.3 68% 67–73 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Alabama A&M +31.1 148.1 100% 58–93 ✓
Indiana State @ Northern Iowa -2.0 141.3 43% 61–57 ✓
Washington State @ Oregon State +1.0 132.0 54% 66–68 ✓
UCF @ Tulsa +4.5 131.1 66% 65–58 ✗
Colorado State @ Wyoming -10.5 155.3 17% 68–59 ✓
North Carolina @ Duke +1.3 143.9 55% 91–87 ✗
Vanderbilt @ Georgia +6.1 159.4 71% 70–73 ✓
Nicholls @ Sam Houston +3.2 149.7 62% 71–78 ✓
Wofford @ Furman +7.3 148.0 75% 75–67 ✗
Nebraska @ Michigan State +6.3 146.5 72% 56–66 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.