Betting Lines
| Spread | OMA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | OMA -175 WIU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OMA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIU +8 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | OMA -1.9 (-9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.5 (+7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OMA -0.5 (-8.5) | 155.3 (+6.7) | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIU -0.2 (-7.8) | 152.0 (+10.0) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OMA -1.6 (-9.6) | 153.1 (+8.9) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OMA -1.4 (-9.4) | 153.9 (+8.1) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2023 | WIU 75 – 72 OMA |
| Jan 6, 2023 | OMA 78 – 74 WIU |
| Feb 25, 2022 | WIU 88 – 76 OMA |
| Dec 23, 2021 | OMA 84 – 78 WIU |
| Feb 7, 2021 | WIU 75 – 73 OMA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OMA | WIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-20 | 7-15 |
| Conference | 3-11 | 5-9 |
| Home | 1-5 | 2-5 |
| Away | 3-12 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.0 | 80.5 |
| Massey | -10.1 (#312) | -9.4 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.29 (#322) | -2.60 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.31 (#330) | -2.93 (#320) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#264) | 0.374 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OMA | WIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 29.2% |
Game Analysis
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