Betting Lines
| Spread | GASO -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | TROY +110 GASO +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +12 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -2.8 (+9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.6 (-3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -2.5 (+9.5) | 130.5 (-6.5) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -2.7 (+9.3) | 130.7 (-6.7) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -2.6 (+9.4) | 130.9 (-6.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -2.9 (+9.1) | 131.8 (-7.8) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | TROY 77 – 61 GASO |
| Jan 24, 2026 | TROY 83 – 78 GASO |
| Jan 31, 2025 | TROY 81 – 74 GASO |
| Feb 2, 2024 | TROY 84 – 63 GASO |
| Feb 5, 2022 | TROY 61 – 52 GASO |
Game Analysis
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