Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | ILST +275 MOST -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +7 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | MOST -6.8 (-0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (-8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -5.6 (-1.4) | 144.2 (-3.2) | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -6.6 (-0.4) | 142.1 (-1.1) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -4.7 (-2.3) | 144.6 (-3.6) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -4.5 (-2.5) | 144.2 (-3.2) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2025 | ILST 70 – 54 MOST |
| Feb 23, 2025 | ILST 70 – 68 MOST |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ILST 74 – 68 MOST |
| Feb 29, 2024 | ILST 75 – 74 MOST |
| Jan 20, 2024 | ILST 69 – 60 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-18 | 17-7 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 12-6 |
| Home | 3-8 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#247) | 4.2 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.42 (#281) | 0.86 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.61 (#269) | 0.99 (#113) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#273) | 0.521 (#131) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 15.2% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 76.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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